401 Estireno St · Borger, TX 79007

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2000 4,876 sqft lot $70/sqft · 33% below area Est $127k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this opportunity to buy and invest in this home

Key facts

• 4,876 sq ft lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 141 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-144/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#268 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Borger ISD (town): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #348 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2 units permitted in Hutchinson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,999
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -33.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-14,478
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-13,350
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79007

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,192/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $82,881

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Dolomita St Borger, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	43d	1	0.11mi
103 Caliche St Borger, TX	3.0	2.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	43d	1	0.27mi
37 Adobe Trl Unit AT-27 Borger, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$850	$0.85	21d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-01-27
    listed $85,000 Active 67-char remark

    Show marketing remark (67 chars)

    Come take a look at this opportunity to buy and invest in this home

16. 2000-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,192 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,192 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,192
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$792
• − Management: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$368
• After-tax cash flow: $224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Borger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810890
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,714
• Composite: 35.66/100
• National rank: #4879
• State rank: #348 of 826 in TX

Livability — Borger

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #6266

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Borger, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,927

Population outlook (Hutchinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,274 people
• By 2030: 21,089 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 20,938 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,999 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 21,433 · +0.7%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Hutchinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.2) · D 11.1% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -68.9pp · 2024: -77.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.2 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+72.7 2008: R+68.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.35%
• Current HPI: 114.1111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Listed $85,000 AARMLS
• 2000-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,192 · +42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.