Magnolia Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$525,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Classic Series Magnolia floor plan is a two-story home with five bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining, a large family room, an optional study, an open kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining
• Large family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $525,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $558,162.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $526k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1724 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,248 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.41%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $558,162
• List price: $525,990
• Delta: -5.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Dover Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	3,172 (-1%)	3mo	$499,000	$157	76
3433 Nightingale Ln	0.21mi	4/4.0	3,485 (+9%)	1mo	$599,000	$172	68
918 Newcastle Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,759 (-14%)	1mo	$395,000	$143	64
1109 Cardinal Dr	0.25mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,430 (+8%)	2mo	$540,000	$157	64
3233 Burgundy Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,782 (-13%)	1mo	$425,000	$153	62
1133 Cardinal Dr	0.26mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,483 (+9%)	1mo	$570,000	$164	61
1105 Cardinal Dr	0.25mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,481 (+9%)	5mo	$585,000	$168	58
1511 N Walnut Grove Rd	0.38mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,977 (-7%)	6mo	$640,000	$215	58
1106 Cardinal Dr	0.22mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,849 (-11%)	5mo	$570,000	$200	56
1118 Cardinal Dr	0.22mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+12%)	5mo	$595,000	$167	56
4206 Dandelion Ln	0.62mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,269 (+2%)	5mo	$492,000	$151	54
1502 Birdsong Ct	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,764 (-13%)	3mo	$445,000	$161	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-180,965
• Equity at exit: $83,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-262,185
• Equity at exit: $48,260

Cash invested: $156,285 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 101 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $545,990 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1724
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,927
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$698 /mo · $8,372/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-1,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,883

Max offer price $343,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,100	-5% $-1,293	+0% $-1,485	+5% $-1,678	+10% $-1,871
Rent	-10% $-1,723	-5% $-1,604	+0% $-1,485	+5% $-1,367	+10% $-1,248
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,204	-0.5pp $-1,343	base $-1,485	+0.5pp $-1,630	+1.0pp $-1,777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,540
• Closing costs: $16,745
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 Abbey Ln Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2449	$2,900	$1.18	77d	1	0.10mi
3826 Hyde Park Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,995	$1.06	96d	1	0.32mi
3222 Eagle Ln Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2380	$2,675	$1.12	99d	1	0.35mi
1137 Robin Cir Midlothian, TX	5.0	2.5	2646	$2,900	$1.10	96d	1	0.38mi
1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2332	$2,646	$1.13	70d	1	0.46mi
1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2332	$2,215	$0.95	49d	1	0.46mi
4434 Verbena St Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2970	$3,400	$1.14	10d	1	0.74mi
344 Dairy Way Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	109d	1	0.85mi
3005 Arbor Grove Trl Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2121	$2,895	$1.36	85d	1	0.89mi
2837 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	2153	$2,900	$1.35	133d	1	0.91mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	165d	1	0.96mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	10d	1	0.96mi
3250 Jersey Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2280	$3,400	$1.49	86d	1	0.99mi
3825 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3771	$4,500	$1.19	184d	1	1.04mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	184d	1	1.05mi
4010 Arbor Grove Trl Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2566	$2,931	$1.14	0d	1	1.06mi
1133 Windy Vista Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	3449	$3,700	$1.07	10d	1	1.08mi
3060 Farmhouse Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2658	$3,500	$1.32	86d	1	1.09mi
1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2270	$3,200	$1.41	33d	1	1.47mi
1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2270	$3,200	$1.41	47d	1	1.47mi
1017 Fairhaven Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$3,125	$1.43	0d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $525,990Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family planPlan name: Magnolia
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3192

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model: Magnolia

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $525,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $525,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $525,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $525,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $525,990 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $525,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $525,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $525,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $525,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $525,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $525,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $525,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $525,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $525,990 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $525,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $525,990 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $525,990 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $525,990 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $525,990 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $525,990 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $525,990 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $525,990 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $525,990 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $525,990 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $525,990 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $525,990 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $525,990 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $525,990 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $525,990 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $525,990 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $525,990 Active 52 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $525,990 Active 51 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $525,990 Active 50 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $525,990 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $525,990 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $525,990 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $525,990 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $525,990 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $525,990 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $525,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $525,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $525,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $525,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $525,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $525,990 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $525,990 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $525,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $525,990 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $525,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $525,990 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,266
• − Property taxes: −$8,372
• − Insurance: −$2,791
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,882
• − Management: −$2,882
• − Depreciation: −$16,237
• Taxable loss: −$28,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary T E Baxter El D TX #950/4,322 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Walnut Grove Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Midlothian Heritage H S C TX #315/1,632 Nat'l #3,934/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $525,990Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family planPlan name: Magnolia
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3192

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model: Magnolia