8 Twin Tip Ter #3 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$584,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · Condo public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2007 $460/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

It's that time of year everyone looks forward to! The leaves will start turning and it'll be time to start preparing for the upcoming ski season. This cozy, well appointed three bedroom condo is in the heart of it all. Located in the highly desirable Forest Ridge association with direct shuttle service to Loon Mountain, indoor and outdoor amenities, and close proximity to Lincoln downtown attractions. Garden style unit has central air, laundry, and a warm fireplace to relax by after a long day hiking just as the nights start to cool down. Spacious enough for your family and guests with a nice open concept floor plan for the holidays. Nicely accented with new vinyl flooring and furnishings. This condo has the perfect size deck on the first floor to grill home cooked meals! Excellent investment opportunity here as short term rentals are allowed.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Ground floor
• Fully furnished

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULLY FURNISHED
• COVERED DECK
• PRIVATE FORESTED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condo name: Forest Gardens
• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (monthly); HOA fee $460 monthly; HOA services include cable, internet, landscaping, plowing/snow removal, trash removal, recreation, master insurance; Community amenities: clubhouse, exercise facility, recreation facilities, common acreage, hot tub, indoor pool, in-ground pool, pickleball

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; Internet via cable (Spectrum); Cable service available; Fuel service (Irving)
• Home design: Garden-style condo; Unit/lot number 3
• Construction: Built in 2007; Wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Condo development; Common/shared driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Furnished sale includes furnishings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $584k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($105k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $584k).
• Recommended offer: $575k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $164k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($575k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $575,240 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.38%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $604,933
• Equity at exit: $236,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $1,402,436
• Equity at exit: $345,458

Cash invested: $163,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,063
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,515/yr
• Insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,433
• Net cashflow: $8,773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,243

Max offer price $584,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,000
• Closing costs: $17,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
249 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,000	$1.21	44d	1	0.46mi
51 Pollard Rd Unit 4 Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	43d	1	0.56mi
51 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$15,000	$15.00	43d	1	0.56mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	43d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $584,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $584,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $584,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $584,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $584,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $584,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $584,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $584,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $584,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $584,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $584,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $584,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $584,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $584,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $584,000 Active
16. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $525,000 Closed 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    It's that time of year everyone looks forward to! The leaves will start turning and it'll be time to start preparing for the upcoming ski season. This cozy, well appointed three bedroom condo is in the heart of it all. Located in the highly desirable Forest Ridge association with direct shuttle service to Loon Mountain, indoor and outdoor amenities, and close proximity to Lincoln downtown attractions. Garden style unit has central air, laundry, and a warm fireplace to relax by after a long day hiking just as the nights start to cool down. Spacious enough for your family and guests with a nice open concept floor plan for the holidays. Nicely accented with new vinyl flooring and furnishings. This condo has the perfect size deck on the first floor to grill home cooked meals! Excellent investment opportunity here as short term rentals are allowed.

17. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $525,000

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    It's that time of year everyone looks forward to! The leaves will start turning and it'll be time to start preparing for the upcoming ski season. This cozy, well appointed three bedroom condo is in the heart of it all. Located in the highly desirable Forest Ridge association with direct shuttle service to Loon Mountain, indoor and outdoor amenities, and close proximity to Lincoln downtown attractions. Garden style unit has central air, laundry, and a warm fireplace to relax by after a long day hiking just as the nights start to cool down. Spacious enough for your family and guests with a nice open concept floor plan for the holidays. Nicely accented with new vinyl flooring and furnishings. This condo has the perfect size deck on the first floor to grill home cooked meals! Excellent investment opportunity here as short term rentals are allowed.

18. 2022-10-27
    historical Active with Contract 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    It's that time of year everyone looks forward to! The leaves will start turning and it'll be time to start preparing for the upcoming ski season. This cozy, well appointed three bedroom condo is in the heart of it all. Located in the highly desirable Forest Ridge association with direct shuttle service to Loon Mountain, indoor and outdoor amenities, and close proximity to Lincoln downtown attractions. Garden style unit has central air, laundry, and a warm fireplace to relax by after a long day hiking just as the nights start to cool down. Spacious enough for your family and guests with a nice open concept floor plan for the holidays. Nicely accented with new vinyl flooring and furnishings. This condo has the perfect size deck on the first floor to grill home cooked meals! Excellent investment opportunity here as short term rentals are allowed.

19. 2022-08-29
    listed $539,900 Active - Delayed Showings 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    It's that time of year everyone looks forward to! The leaves will start turning and it'll be time to start preparing for the upcoming ski season. This cozy, well appointed three bedroom condo is in the heart of it all. Located in the highly desirable Forest Ridge association with direct shuttle service to Loon Mountain, indoor and outdoor amenities, and close proximity to Lincoln downtown attractions. Garden style unit has central air, laundry, and a warm fireplace to relax by after a long day hiking just as the nights start to cool down. Spacious enough for your family and guests with a nice open concept floor plan for the holidays. Nicely accented with new vinyl flooring and furnishings. This condo has the perfect size deck on the first floor to grill home cooked meals! Excellent investment opportunity here as short term rentals are allowed.

20. 2020-03-27
    soldstatus $328,000 Closed 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Here's a great opportunity to own a beautiful getaway home in the small, quaint town of Lincoln, NH full of year-round activities and adventures in the open air of the NH White Mountains. This wonderful, direct-entry, one level, open floor plan condo is being sold turnkey decorated with up-scale Adirondack-style furnishings and decor. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, mud room and large deck with direct access to the back yard, sleeps 8. Central Air & Heat, gas fireplace and tank-less water heater. Condo fee includes cable TV, clubhouse w/ indoor & outdoor pools, fitness room and shuttle to Loon Mtn.

21. 2020-03-17
    status Pending 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Here's a great opportunity to own a beautiful getaway home in the small, quaint town of Lincoln, NH full of year-round activities and adventures in the open air of the NH White Mountains. This wonderful, direct-entry, one level, open floor plan condo is being sold turnkey decorated with up-scale Adirondack-style furnishings and decor. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, mud room and large deck with direct access to the back yard, sleeps 8. Central Air & Heat, gas fireplace and tank-less water heater. Condo fee includes cable TV, clubhouse w/ indoor & outdoor pools, fitness room and shuttle to Loon Mtn.

22. 2020-03-16
    listed $335,000 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Here's a great opportunity to own a beautiful getaway home in the small, quaint town of Lincoln, NH full of year-round activities and adventures in the open air of the NH White Mountains. This wonderful, direct-entry, one level, open floor plan condo is being sold turnkey decorated with up-scale Adirondack-style furnishings and decor. Features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, mud room and large deck with direct access to the back yard, sleeps 8. Central Air & Heat, gas fireplace and tank-less water heater. Condo fee includes cable TV, clubhouse w/ indoor & outdoor pools, fitness room and shuttle to Loon Mtn.

23. 2017-10-16
    soldstatus $235,000
24. 2017-10-13
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed
25. 2017-09-27
    status Pending
26. 2017-08-25
    historical Active with Contract
27. 2017-05-14
    price $239,900
28. 2016-11-01
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,515 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,623 · $719/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,108/yr (+$342/mo · 91.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,713
• − Property taxes: −$4,515
• − Insurance: −$2,920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,694
• − Management: −$15,694
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$16,989
• Taxable income: $102,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,512
• After-tax cash flow: $80,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+133.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $584,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $525,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-10-27 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2022-08-29 Listed $539,900 PrimeMLS
• 2020-03-27 Sold (MLS) $328,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-03-17 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listed $335,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-13 Sold (MLS) $235,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-09-27 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2017-08-25 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2017-05-14 Price Changed $239,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-11-01 Listed $249,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,515 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.