31576 Pine Ridge Cir · Lawton, MI 49065

$314,275

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2022 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-679/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#293 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawton Community School District (rural): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #263 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,632 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,368
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64071 M 40	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (-6%)	1mo	$122,000	$71	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-54,653
• Equity at exit: $46,859

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-52,738
• Equity at exit: $27,173

Cash invested: $87,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49065

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,648
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $304,286

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,569
• Closing costs: $9,428
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2025-06-27
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

2. 2024-12-17
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

3. 2022-11-07
   soldstatus $314,275 Sold 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

4. 2022-11-07
   soldstatus $314,275 Sold

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

5. 2022-09-02
   status Pending
6. 2022-09-02
   status Pending
7. 2022-04-10
   historical

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

8. 2022-04-10
   listed $314,275 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

9. 2022-04-10
   historical 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

10. 2022-04-10
    listed $314,275

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

11. 2022-04-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

12. 2022-04-10
    listed $314,275

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, designer kitchen with granite counter tops including on the breakfast bar, designer backsplash, gas line to range, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, guest bedroom, and rec room in the basement, and covered front entry.

13. 2022-02-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

14. 2022-02-25
    listed $314,275 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

15. 2022-02-25
    historical 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

16. 2022-02-25
    historical 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

17. 2022-02-25
    listed $314,275

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

18. 2022-02-25
    listed $314,275

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

19. 2022-02-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Newly constructed colonial in the Pawton Meadows Community. This 2-story home boasts features including: energy efficiency, 10-yr structural warranty, attached 2-car garage, breakfast bar with granite counter tops including in the designer kitchen, gas line to range, designer backsplash, lower level - storage under the stairs, basement bath rough in per plan, rec room and guest bedroom in the basement, and covered front entry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,207 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,633/yr (+$136/mo · 103.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,604
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$1,571
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − Depreciation: −$9,143
• Taxable loss: −$6,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2621240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,315
• Composite: 31.04/100
• National rank: #6084
• State rank: #263 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #7328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,283

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.97%
• Current HPI: 165.0761
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-11-07 Sold (MLS) $314,275 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-11-07 Sold (MLS) $314,275 REALCOMP
• 2022-09-02 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-09-02 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-04-10 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-04-10 Listed $314,275 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-04-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-10 Listed $314,275 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-10 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-10 Listed $314,275 REALCOMP
• 2022-02-25 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-02-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $314,275 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $314,275 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-02-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-25 Listed $314,275 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,573 · -68.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.