4165 Rolling Oaks Dr · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1985 3,681 sqft lot $177/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a bargain!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This home needs a lot of cosmetic TLC but at a very good price and home layout is great with a inside washer n dryer hook up! This want last long so get your Florida home at a great price before its gone.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 3,681 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Spirit Lake Road to Oakwood Estates, first left onto Rolling Oaks; home on the left
• Financial info: Total annual fees $2,130; Furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $177.50); HOA includes pool, sewer, trash, and water; Community amenities: pool, tennis courts, laundry; golf carts allowed; Senior community; Cats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Single-story; Faces northwest; Residential property; Homesteaded
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area approximately 1152 square feet; Total acreage less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.08 acres)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Fishing pier (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Skylights; Bonus room; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $90k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.88%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $9,993
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $38,485
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,667/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.67mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	3d	1	1.00mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	1.03mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	1.04mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	1.06mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	1.07mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	1.07mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.17mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $177 · $2,124/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    price $90,000
15. 2025-12-13
    listed $99,900 Active
16. 2022-12-12
    status Pending
17. 2022-12-09
    historical
18. 2022-10-17
    status Active
19. 2022-10-10
    price $99,900
20. 2022-08-23
    status Active
21. 2022-08-04
    status Pending
22. 2022-07-07
    listed $89,900 Active
23. 2016-06-03
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    What a bargain!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This home needs a lot of cosmetic TLC but at a very good price and home layout is great with a inside washer n dryer hook up! This want last long so get your Florida home at a great price before its gone.

24. 2016-05-11
    status Pending 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    What a bargain!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This home needs a lot of cosmetic TLC but at a very good price and home layout is great with a inside washer n dryer hook up! This want last long so get your Florida home at a great price before its gone.

25. 2016-03-30
    listed $44,900 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    What a bargain!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This home needs a lot of cosmetic TLC but at a very good price and home layout is great with a inside washer n dryer hook up! This want last long so get your Florida home at a great price before its gone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,667
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − HOA: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$885
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+100.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-07 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-03 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-30 Listed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,667 · +158.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.