1520 W Creek Dr · Conroe, TX 77304

$200,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2008 0.32 ac lot $78/sqft · 20% below area Est $249k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2576 sq ft mobile home nestled on . 32 acres just minutes from Lake Conroe. This spacious home boasts 6 cozy bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a bonus office building at the front. Recently renovated with fresh drywall, paint, and stunning granite countertops, this home offers a modern touch in a serene setting. Add on is permitted by county!! New roof, new hot water heater and sewer drain lines have been redone. Situated in the desirable Conroe School District and free from HOA restrictions, this property provides the perfect mix of comfort and convenience. Home has a current tenant. Lease ends in January 2027.

Key facts

• Sewer drain lines
• New hot water heater
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• SEWER DRAIN LINES
• FREE FROM HOA RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2008
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Reed El (586 students, 47% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.38%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,000
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -19.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,951
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,508
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $495	+0% $438	+5% $381	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $352	+0% $438	+5% $524	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $489	base $438	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $200,000 Active 643-char remark
16. 2026-01-15
    historical
17. 2026-01-01
    historical $1,875
18. 2025-12-03
    price $1,875
19. 2025-12-02
    price $225,000
20. 2025-09-26
    listed $2,075
21. 2025-08-19
    listed $235,000 Active
22. 2024-11-04
    historical
23. 2024-09-24
    price $230,500
24. 2024-09-23
    historical $2,075
25. 2024-09-03
    listed $2,075
26. 2024-09-02
    price $237,553
27. 2024-07-04
    listed $249,553 Active
28. 2023-08-10
    soldstatus
29. 2023-05-15
    historical
30. 2023-05-12
    listed $99,000 Active
31. 2014-08-18
    historical
32. 2014-06-13
    price $92,700
33. 2014-05-01
    listed $98,800 Active
34. 2012-07-16
    historical
35. 2012-04-05
    listed $89,999
36. 2011-04-09
    historical
37. 2010-10-02
    listed $99,500
38. 2005-02-24
    soldstatus
39. 2005-02-24
    soldstatus
40. 2004-09-28
    historical
41. 2003-09-03
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,764/yr (+$147/mo · 93.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $4,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1900.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,875 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $1,875 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,075 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $230,500 HARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Rental Removed $2,075 HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listed for Rent $2,075 HARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $237,553 HARMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $249,553 HARMLS
• 2023-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-06-13 Price Changed $92,700 HARMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listed $98,800 HARMLS
• 2012-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-04-05 Listed $89,999 HARMLS
• 2011-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-02 Listed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2005-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-09-03 Listed $10,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.