1806 Butler Ct NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$510,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2017 6,488 sqft lot $276/sqft · at area comps Est $518k · at est. $183/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming tri-level home in the desirable Evergreen Point community! This inviting layout offers an open living room flowing seamlessly into the dining area—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. White painted millwork throughout adds a crisp, updated feel. The kitchen is sure to impress with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, island seating, gas cooktop, and ample workspace for the home chef. Upstairs you’ll find 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with private ensuite bath. Enjoy outdoor living in the private, fully fenced backyard featuring a covered back deck—ideal for year-round gatherings and extended living spac

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Open living room
• Island seating

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ISLAND SEATING
• GAS COOKTOP
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (48.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (47.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (48.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$88k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($464k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $261,884 (48.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.80%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $518,437
• List price: $510,000
• Delta: -1.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4405 Hammersley Way NW	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-9%)	4mo	$535,000	$318	72
2210 Cooper Crest St NW	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,894 (+2%)	16mo	$540,000	$285	53
4406 Hammersley Way NW	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	23mo	$525,000	$328	51
1734 Medallion Loop NW	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,786 (-3%)	16mo	$460,000	$258	51
1613 Easthill Ct NW	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,811 (-2%)	15mo	$555,555	$307	49
1615 Easthill Ct NW	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,999 (+8%)	1mo	$575,000	$288	49
1815 Cameo Ct NW	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,938 (+5%)	14mo	$678,600	$350	46
2319 Crestwood Pl NW	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,078 (+12%)	5mo	$505,000	$243	44
2304 Cooper Crest Pl NW	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,068 (+12%)	6mo	$500,000	$242	41
3922 Hillview Ct NW	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-12%)	23mo	$540,000	$334	40
4038 11th Ave NW	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-5%)	18mo	$541,000	$309	35
2605 Aztec Dr NW	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,016 (+9%)	11mo	$539,000	$267	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $188,790
• Equity at exit: $459,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $627,292
• Equity at exit: $990,818

Cash invested: $142,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax from tax record: −$469 /mo · $5,634/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-1,405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,480

Max offer price $261,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,116	-5% $-1,260	+0% $-1,405	+5% $-1,549	+10% $-1,693
Rent	-10% $-1,618	-5% $-1,511	+0% $-1,405	+5% $-1,298	+10% $-1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,148	-0.5pp $-1,275	base $-1,405	+0.5pp $-1,537	+1.0pp $-1,671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,500
• Closing costs: $15,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1901 Hudson St NW Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,700	$1.58	14d	1	0.10mi
4407 Goldcrest Dr NW Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2615	$2,950	$1.13	44d	1	0.17mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$2,645	$2.08	14d	5	1.14mi
4611 Greenwood Dr SW Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1448	$2,495	$1.72	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $510,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $510,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $510,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $510,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $510,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $510,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $510,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $520,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $520,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $520,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $520,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $520,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $520,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $520,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $520,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    price $530,000
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $540,000 Active
18. 2022-05-20
    soldstatus $495,000 Closed
19. 2022-04-19
    status Pending
20. 2022-04-14
    listed $449,950 Active
21. 2015-08-26
    soldstatus $3,960,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,634 · $469/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,634 · $469/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,568
• − Property taxes: −$5,634
• − Insurance: −$2,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,594
• − Management: −$2,594
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$14,836
• Taxable loss: −$26,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-86.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $530,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $540,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-20 Sold (MLS) $495,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-14 Listed $449,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $3,960,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,634 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.