19 Tupelo Dr · Clifton Gardens, NY 12065

$345,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1995 5,662 sqft lot $240/sqft · 26% below area Est $468k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious well maintained 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom conveniently located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood close to shopping, restaurants and major highways. The first floor is freshly painted, has hardwood floors throughout ,updated kitchen breakfast area, half bath, dining area. The second floor has a master suite with updated master bath 2 spacious bedrooms and updated main bath with granite ct and luxurious tiled walk in shower. Large deck leading to private backyard with shed and beautiful landscaped grounds. Minutes away from 87 thruway.

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Private backyard
• Finished basement

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WOOD DECK
• STONE PATIO
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• FLEXIBLE EXTRA SPACE
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Total of 4 parking spaces; Driveway parking (paved)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Level lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Full basement with interior entry; Built with typical residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Paved driveway; Exterior lighting; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Two additional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on second level; One half bathroom on first level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Sliding doors; Fireplace (1); 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Clifton Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 72% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shenendehowa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $239,109 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.72%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $468,094
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -26.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Mapleridge Ave	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,524 (+6%)	2mo	$465,000	$305	81
29A Mapleridge Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	6mo	$340,000	$217	75
4 Mapleridge Ave	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,530 (+7%)	15mo	$425,250	$278	66
26 Birchwood Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-9%)	2mo	$375,000	$288	66
149 Guideboard Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+1%)	13mo	$415,000	$288	52
3 Hayner Hts	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,550 (+8%)	11mo	$370,000	$239	52
51 Commons Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+4%)	8mo	$440,000	$294	52
1 Mapleridge Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+11%)	23mo	$385,000	$241	49
3 Captains Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-3%)	18mo	$279,900	$201	48
23 Route 236	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,354 (-6%)	16mo	$170,000	$126	45
33 Woodin Rd	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	22mo	$300,000	$240	32
102 Stone Quarry Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	22mo	$240,000	$185	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,262
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-102,099
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12065

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,724/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,076

Max offer price $249,431

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Ponderosa Dr Clifton Park, NY	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,750	$1.95	19d	1	0.09mi
1 Kensington Ct Clifton Park, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1190	$2,555	$2.15	14d	1	0.44mi
1700 Lookout Ln Clifton Park, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,159	$2.01	14d	7	0.70mi
5200 Plank Rd Waterford, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	14d	1	0.74mi
209 Monmouth Way Halfmoon, NY	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	14d	1	1.19mi
37 Squire Ln Clifton Park, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	857	$1,761	$2.05	14d	5	1.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1214-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $345,000 Active 1214-char remark
3. 2021-10-04
   soldstatus $282,000
4. 2021-09-24
   soldstatus $282,000 Closed (Final Sale) 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Spacious well maintained 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom conveniently located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood close to shopping, restaurants and major highways. The first floor is freshly painted, has hardwood floors throughout ,updated kitchen breakfast area, half bath, dining area. The second floor has a master suite with updated master bath 2 spacious bedrooms and updated main bath with granite ct and luxurious tiled walk in shower. Large deck leading to private backyard with shed and beautiful landscaped grounds. Minutes away from 87 thruway.

5. 2021-08-10
   status Pend (Under Cntr) 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Spacious well maintained 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom conveniently located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood close to shopping, restaurants and major highways. The first floor is freshly painted, has hardwood floors throughout ,updated kitchen breakfast area, half bath, dining area. The second floor has a master suite with updated master bath 2 spacious bedrooms and updated main bath with granite ct and luxurious tiled walk in shower. Large deck leading to private backyard with shed and beautiful landscaped grounds. Minutes away from 87 thruway.

6. 2021-07-17
   price $289,900 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Spacious well maintained 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom conveniently located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood close to shopping, restaurants and major highways. The first floor is freshly painted, has hardwood floors throughout ,updated kitchen breakfast area, half bath, dining area. The second floor has a master suite with updated master bath 2 spacious bedrooms and updated main bath with granite ct and luxurious tiled walk in shower. Large deck leading to private backyard with shed and beautiful landscaped grounds. Minutes away from 87 thruway.

7. 2021-07-10
   price $299,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Spacious well maintained 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom conveniently located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood close to shopping, restaurants and major highways. The first floor is freshly painted, has hardwood floors throughout ,updated kitchen breakfast area, half bath, dining area. The second floor has a master suite with updated master bath 2 spacious bedrooms and updated main bath with granite ct and luxurious tiled walk in shower. Large deck leading to private backyard with shed and beautiful landscaped grounds. Minutes away from 87 thruway.

8. 2021-07-06
   listed $309,000 New 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Spacious well maintained 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom conveniently located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood close to shopping, restaurants and major highways. The first floor is freshly painted, has hardwood floors throughout ,updated kitchen breakfast area, half bath, dining area. The second floor has a master suite with updated master bath 2 spacious bedrooms and updated main bath with granite ct and luxurious tiled walk in shower. Large deck leading to private backyard with shed and beautiful landscaped grounds. Minutes away from 87 thruway.

9. 2003-08-05
   soldstatus $172,000
10. 1995-11-03
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,724 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,777 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$5,724
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$12,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenendehowa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626670
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $82,933
• Composite: 64.59/100
• National rank: #531
• State rank: #98 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clifton Gardens

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 44,726
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 45,116
• Household income: $113,873
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.12%
• Current HPI: 318.0765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1024.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $371,000 Global MLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $345,000 Global MLS
• 2021-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-24 Sold (MLS) $282,000 Global MLS
• 2021-08-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2021-07-17 Price Changed $289,900 Global MLS
• 2021-07-10 Price Changed $299,000 Global MLS
• 2021-07-06 Listed $309,000 Global MLS
• 2003-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,724 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.