675 Highland Ranch Way · Mustang Ridge, TX 78616

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot $292/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits on this fully fenced 1-acre lot with front gate, offering versatile improvements and strong potential. The property includes a single-wide mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing immediate use or rental options. A detached shop equipped with a car lift makes this an ideal setup for mechanics, hobbyists, or small business use. Additional structures include a storage building and an unfinished guest house, offering flexibility for future build-out, workspace, or supplemental living (buyer to verify use and permits). Ample space for equipment, vehicles, and expansion. A unique property well-suited for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity and room to create. Lender available for this unique property.

Key facts

• Front gate
• Storage building
• Detached shop

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• FRONT GATE
• DETACHED SHOP
• CAR LIFT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• UNFINISHED GUEST HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,804 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,305
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -1.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $132,684
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $406,051
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $225,310

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-03-20
    price $280,000 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on this fully fenced 1-acre lot with front gate, offering versatile improvements and strong potential. The property includes a single-wide mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing immediate use or rental options. A detached shop equipped with a car lift makes this an ideal setup for mechanics, hobbyists, or small business use. Additional structures include a storage building and an unfinished guest house, offering flexibility for future build-out, workspace, or supplemental living (buyer to verify use and permits). Ample space for equipment, vehicles, and expansion. A unique property well-suited for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity and room to create. Lender available for this unique property.

15. 2025-12-15
    listed $295,000 Active 760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (760 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on this fully fenced 1-acre lot with front gate, offering versatile improvements and strong potential. The property includes a single-wide mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing immediate use or rental options. A detached shop equipped with a car lift makes this an ideal setup for mechanics, hobbyists, or small business use. Additional structures include a storage building and an unfinished guest house, offering flexibility for future build-out, workspace, or supplemental living (buyer to verify use and permits). Ample space for equipment, vehicles, and expansion. A unique property well-suited for investors or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity and room to create. Lender available for this unique property.

16. 2025-09-15
    soldstatus
17. 2025-09-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,289/yr (+$274/mo · 179.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,122
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mustang Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #854
• US rank: #15380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $280,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $295,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.