146 Hollow Rd · Cosby, TN 37722

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2001 0.47 ac lot $279/sqft · 16% above area Est $236k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

Key facts

• Easy-maintenance lot
• Water heater
• Updated hvac

Tags

• UPDATED HVAC
• WATER HEATER
• ADT SECURITY SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS BACK PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• EASY-MAINTENANCE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($42k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,499 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.88%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,091
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 16.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 Hollow Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	984 (0%)	0mo	$276,500	$281	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $374,006
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 13.01×
• Total profit: $924,861
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,369
• Net cashflow: $3,522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,677	-5% $3,600	+0% $3,522	+5% $3,444	+10% $3,366
Rent	-10% $3,007	-5% $3,264	+0% $3,522	+5% $3,779	+10% $4,037
Rate	-1.0pp $3,660	-0.5pp $3,592	base $3,522	+0.5pp $3,450	+1.0pp $3,378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4949 Ledford Rd Unit 1051743P Cosby, TN	1.0	1.0	667	$6,520	$9.78	15d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1083-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

2. 2026-05-07
   price $275,000 1083-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

3. 2026-04-16
   status Active 1083-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

4. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 1083-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

5. 2026-03-05
   price $280,000 1083-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

6. 2026-02-19
   listed $285,000 Active 1083-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

7. 2026-02-19
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

   Perfectly located just off of East Parkway (Hwy 321) near The Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Maddron Bald Trailhead, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home just under 1,000 sq ft offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and Smoky Mountain Lifestyle! Recent upgrades include new exterior paint, updated HVAC, and water heater. Property currently has an ADT Security System providing peace of mind and move in readiness. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious back patio with abundant furnishings, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, plus a fully fenced back yard. Situated on an easy-maintenance lot with ample parking and a storage building with electric, this property is designed for easy ownership. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, second home, or a short-term rental investment, this location provides quick access to Downtown Gatlinburg, Cosby, and endless seasonal recreational opportunities inside the National Park including hiking, fishing, wildlife viewing, and scenic drives. A rare opportunity in a highly desirable corridor!

8. 2026-01-30
   listed $285,000 Active
9. 2026-01-30
   listed $285,000 Active
10. 2025-04-04
    price $299,000
11. 2024-05-23
    soldstatus $320,000 Closed
12. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $240,000
13. 2024-05-17
    soldstatus $240,000 Closed
14. 2024-04-14
    status Pending
15. 2024-04-14
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2024-04-12
    listed $259,000 Active
17. 2024-03-21
    price $259,000
18. 2024-03-06
    listed $264,900 Active
19. 2015-10-28
    soldstatus $113,100
20. 2000-08-16
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,084/yr (+$90/mo · 124.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,259
• − Management: −$6,259
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $40,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,618
• After-tax cash flow: $32,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+3337.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GSMAR
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $275,000 GSMAR
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — GSMAR
• 2026-03-26 Pending — GSMAR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $280,000 GSMAR
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $285,000 GSMAR
• 2026-01-30 Listed $285,000 GSMAR
• 2026-01-30 Listed $285,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $299,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) $320,000 GSMAR
• 2024-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-17 Sold (MLS) $240,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-04-14 Pending — GSMAR
• 2024-04-14 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $259,000 GSMAR
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $259,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed $264,900 TVRMLS
• 2015-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $113,100 Public Records
• 2000-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $868 · +40.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.