667 Dumbarton Ave · Baltimore, MD 21218

$85,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · Townhouse public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1922 1,260 sqft lot $67/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in rapidly growing Pen Lucy! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rowhome offers a solid layout and strong value-add potential. Property would benefit from cosmetic updates, making it ideal for a light-to-moderate rehab flip or a buy-and-hold investor looking to build equity. Delivered vacant at closing for a smooth transition. Comparable renovated homes in the area are selling in the $220K–$270K range, supporting strong resale upside. Cash or hard money only. Don’t miss your chance to capitalize on an appreciating neighborhood!

Key facts

• Built 1922
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $85k implies a 325% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.64%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,800
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -56.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
827 Belgian Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	2mo	$130,000	$103	89
646 E 37th St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,284 (+2%)	0mo	$94,000	$73	80
3626 Kimble Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+2%)	2mo	$310,000	$242	74
515 E 35th St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,260 (0%)	1mo	$135,999	$108	74
604 E 35th St E	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,260 (0%)	1mo	$94,000	$75	74
3633 Elkader Rd	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$203	71
3825 Elkader Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+7%)	1mo	$275,000	$203	68
3807 Elkader Rd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+7%)	0mo	$235,000	$174	68
608 Chestnut Hill Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (-8%)	1mo	$73,000	$63	66
800 Radnor Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-3%)	2mo	$99,900	$82	63
609 Melville Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+8%)	1mo	$120,000	$88	56
1312 E Cold Spring Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-4%)	1mo	$147,000	$121	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $31,316
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $78,705
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,291/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $956

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $795	-5% $771	+0% $746	+5% $722	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $671	+0% $746	+5% $822	+10% $897
Rate	-1.0pp $789	-0.5pp $768	base $746	+0.5pp $724	+1.0pp $702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 E 41st St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	0.20mi
3721 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,603	$1.79	2d	1	0.21mi
4033 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1860	$2,550	$1.37	25d	1	0.24mi
720 Springfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	44d	1	0.25mi
815 Gilrubin Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	44d	1	0.25mi
612 Chestnut Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	44d	1	0.27mi
812 Nat Ct Apt 12 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	44d	1	0.27mi
706 E 43rd St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1596	$1,899	$1.19	3d	1	0.29mi
4303 York Rd #3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1680	$1,400	$0.83	44d	1	0.32mi
721 E 36th St Unit Na Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,650	$1.43	44d	1	0.42mi
4407 Old York Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,574	$1.16	44d	1	0.42mi
4407 Old York Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,574	$1.16	21d	1	0.42mi
531 Willow Ave Unit Na Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	0.49mi
724 E 35th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.50mi
3529 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,575	$1.20	44d	1	0.50mi
835 E Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	997	$1,400	$1.40	25d	1	0.51mi
1040 E 33rd St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,525	$1.97	3d	10	0.57mi
1504 Upshire Rd Unit 1E Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.62mi
804 Radnor Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1654	$2,000	$1.21	44d	1	0.65mi
3601 Greenway #101 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	5d	1	0.71mi
3222 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1550	$1,950	$1.26	44d	1	0.71mi
1539 Ralworth Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.72mi
348 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.72mi
514 Radnor Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1575	$1,500	$0.95	45d	1	0.72mi
1502 Fernley Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,800	$2.07	44d	1	0.75mi
1617 Argonne Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	44d	1	0.78mi
1 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,500	$2.39	5d	2	0.78mi
3501 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	916	$2,700	$2.95	2d	172	0.80mi
1260 Rossiter Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	710	$1,250	$1.76	2d	37	0.80mi
3811 Canterbury Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,495	$2.56	13d	5	0.82mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	12d	1	0.82mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	18d	1	0.83mi
510 Winston Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,800	$1.75	21d	1	0.87mi
543 Chateau Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,900	$1.65	5d	1	0.88mi
1224 Winston Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,100	$1.68	18d	1	0.88mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.89mi
108 W 39th St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$2,189	$1.62	4d	11	0.91mi
105 W 39th St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	753	$2,250	$2.99	5d	1	0.91mi
3213 The Alameda Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1708	$1,295	$0.76	4d	1	0.91mi
416 Winston Ave Unit 426-01 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	890	$1,250	$1.40	44d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   price $100,000
10. 2026-05-08
    historical
11. 2026-05-05
    price $105,000
12. 2026-04-21
    listed $115,000 Active
13. 2025-08-18
    historical
14. 2025-07-31
    price $110,000
15. 2025-07-21
    listed $115,000 Active
16. 2016-02-03
    soldstatus $20,000
17. 2016-02-03
    soldstatus $20,000 Sold
18. 2016-01-07
    status Contract
19. 2015-11-25
    listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,291 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,291 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$3,291
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $6,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-02-03 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MRIS
• 2016-02-03 Sold (MLS) $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-11-25 Listed $10,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,291 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.