Tulare Plan · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$575,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Boasting two stories of thoughtfully designed living space, there's a lot to love about the dynamic Tulare plan. On the main level, you'll find a powder room, a mudroom, an expansive great room, an open dining area, and an impressive kitchen offering a center island and a walk-in pantry. Three bedrooms can be found upstairs, highlighted by a stunning primary suite showcasing an oversized walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks. A second full bath is also included. You'll love our professionally curated fixtures and finishes!

Key facts

• Nearby amenities
• Sky river casino
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• TWO STORY FLOOR PLANS
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• ELK GROVE REGIONAL PARK
• BARTHOLOMEW SPORTS PARK
• SKY RIVER CASINO
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO I-5

🏗️ New construction. The $575,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $661,993.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $576k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (42.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Franklin Elementary (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #350 of 1,571 statewide, top 22%, 894 students, 38% FRL); Elizabeth Pinkerton Middle (math 53% / reading 70%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 982 students, 29% FRL); Cosumnes Oaks High (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,212 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $71k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$114k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($507k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $330,461 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.72%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $661,993
• List price: $575,950
• Delta: -13.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8368 Solfrid Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,960 (0%)	4mo	$591,113	$302	89
8393 Eleodoro Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,960 (0%)	3mo	$580,075	$296	88
10367 Mornington Way	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,980 (+1%)	3mo	$647,705	$327	82
8360 Kyler Rd	0.09mi	3/3.0	2,121 (+8%)	3mo	$686,500	$324	77
8349 Eleodoro Way	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,075 (+6%)	1mo	$617,720	$298	75
8357 Eleodoro Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,730 (-12%)	2mo	$562,168	$325	71
8396 Solfrid Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,730 (-12%)	1mo	$555,000	$321	70
8462 Kissa Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,002 (+2%)	2mo	$680,000	$340	65
10032 Wagoner Way	0.64mi	3/3.0	2,127 (+8%)	0mo	$705,000	$331	53
8183 Lavigne Cir	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,220 (+13%)	2mo	$716,500	$323	53
8269 Morning Star Way	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,242 (+14%)	4mo	$737,888	$329	49
8147 Lavigne Cir	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,220 (+13%)	2mo	$750,000	$338	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $240,684
• Equity at exit: $596,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $818,486
• Equity at exit: $1,286,107

Cash invested: $185,358 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$827 /mo · $9,930/yr
• Insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $-1,964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,791

Max offer price $377,764

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,507	-5% $-1,735	+0% $-1,964	+5% $-2,193	+10% $-2,422
Rent	-10% $-2,225	-5% $-2,095	+0% $-1,964	+5% $-1,834	+10% $-1,703
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,631	-0.5pp $-1,796	base $-1,964	+0.5pp $-2,136	+1.0pp $-2,310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $165,498
• Closing costs: $19,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8358 Akino Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2321	$3,200	$1.38	45d	1	0.13mi
8357 Eleodoro Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1730	$3,245	$1.88	4d	1	0.16mi
8371 Valpane Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,250	$1.61	0d	1	0.18mi
8376 Solfrid Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2070	$3,200	$1.55	19d	1	0.18mi
8403 Sinesky Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,995	$1.90	12d	1	0.22mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	23d	1	0.22mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	22d	1	0.22mi
8357 Luan Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,895	$1.47	21d	1	0.25mi
8471 Anker Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2107	$3,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.32mi
10114 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,995	$1.35	9d	1	0.42mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	9d	1	0.43mi
10350 Ducasse Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.5	2586	$3,495	$1.35	0d	1	0.49mi
8420 Mondale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2450	$3,950	$1.61	45d	1	0.50mi
10123 Blue Whale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2445	$4,200	$1.72	18d	1	0.70mi
8008 Poppy Ridge Rd Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2073	$3,375	$1.63	25d	1	0.80mi
10573 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1449	$3,299	$2.28	45d	1	1.11mi
10571 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	12d	1	1.11mi
10583 Amigos Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	25d	1	1.12mi
10565 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	12d	1	1.12mi
10563 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1449	$3,299	$2.28	45d	1	1.12mi
10564 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	25d	1	1.13mi
10516 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,399	$2.28	6d	1	1.13mi
10577 Amigos Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	45d	1	1.13mi
10595 Gato Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	45d	1	1.13mi
10508 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,389	$2.27	22d	1	1.14mi
10589 Gato Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,119	$2.36	25d	1	1.14mi
10439 Barrena Loop Elk Grove, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1252	$3,399	$2.71	0d	1	1.15mi
7216 Tavira Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,600	$1.72	45d	1	1.17mi
10568 Trill Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$2,900	$1.60	4d	1	1.30mi
10568 Trill Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$2,900	$1.60	0d	1	1.30mi
9932 Westminster Way Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,695	$1.96	25d	1	1.32mi
7540 Abbey Cir Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1257	$2,700	$2.15	6d	1	1.34mi
9773 Philta Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2564	$3,500	$1.37	6d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $575,950 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,950 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,950 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,950 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,950 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,950 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,950 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,950 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,950 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,950 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $575,950 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $575,950 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $575,950 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $575,950 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $575,950 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    price $575,950 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Boasting two stories of thoughtfully designed living space, there's a lot to love about the dynamic Tulare plan. On the main level, you'll find a powder room, a mudroom, an expansive great room, an open dining area, and an impressive kitchen offering a center island and a walk-in pantry. Three bedrooms can be found upstairs, highlighted by a stunning primary suite showcasing an oversized walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks. A second full bath is also included. You'll love our professionally curated fixtures and finishes!

17. 2026-01-21
    listed $645,000 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Boasting two stories of thoughtfully designed living space, there's a lot to love about the dynamic Tulare plan. On the main level, you'll find a powder room, a mudroom, an expansive great room, an open dining area, and an impressive kitchen offering a center island and a walk-in pantry. Three bedrooms can be found upstairs, highlighted by a stunning primary suite showcasing an oversized walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks. A second full bath is also included. You'll love our professionally curated fixtures and finishes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,082
• − Property taxes: −$9,930
• − Insurance: −$3,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,172
• − Management: −$3,172
• − Depreciation: −$19,258
• Taxable loss: −$36,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,705
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $575,950 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Listed $645,000 Zillow