1450 Wickham Ave · Mattituck, NY 11952

$789,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 1926 0.25 ac lot $493/sqft · 16% below area Est $942k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the Heart of the North Fork, this Charming Move in Ready Home in Mattituck has 3 Bedrooms and 3 Baths. Close to Beaches, Strong's Marina, Wineries, Local Farmstands, Restaurants and Beloved Love's Lane. Enjoy your morning coffee on the Inviting Covered Porch. Or watch a movie Cozied up infront of the Fire Place that anchors the Living Room. Plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space in the Kitchen. Hardwood Floors on the First and Second Levels. Extra Living space in the Finished Basement for an Office and Media/Game Room. Plenty of Room for Cars and Toys in the 2.5 Car detatched Garage equipped with an Escalated Fast Charger AV Charging Station. Solar Panels on the Roof help reduce electricity costs and carbon footprint. A Must See! Peconic Bay Tax applies

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1926

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $789k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($83k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $789k).
• Recommended offer: $777k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $221k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($777k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $789k implies a 598% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $777,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.76%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $941,916
• List price: $789,000
• Delta: -16.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3445 Wickham Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (-1%)	8mo	$999,000	$629	68
780 Westview Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+9%)	1mo	$795,000	$454	56
870 Horton Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+6%)	3mo	$699,000	$411	56
11850 Old Sound Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,421 (-11%)	17mo	$570,000	$401	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $314,892
• Equity at exit: $117,642

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $844,132
• Equity at exit: $68,218

Cash invested: $220,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,138
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,155/yr
• Insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,172
• Net cashflow: $6,952

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,303

Max offer price $789,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,399	-5% $7,176	+0% $6,952	+5% $6,729	+10% $6,506
Rent	-10% $5,759	-5% $6,356	+0% $6,952	+5% $7,549	+10% $8,146
Rate	-1.0pp $7,350	-0.5pp $7,153	base $6,952	+0.5pp $6,748	+1.0pp $6,540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $197,250
• Closing costs: $23,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Maple Ln Mattituck, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,700	$2.06	44d	1	0.55mi
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	44d	1	1.14mi
610 Park Ave Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$44,000	$23.16	25d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Nestled in the Heart of the North Fork, this Charming Move in Ready Home in Mattituck has 3 Bedrooms and 3 Baths. Close to Beaches, Strong's Marina, Wineries, Local Farmstands, Restaurants and Beloved Love's Lane. Enjoy your morning coffee on the Inviting Covered Porch. Or watch a movie Cozied up infront of the Fire Place that anchors the Living Room. Plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space in the Kitchen. Hardwood Floors on the First and Second Levels. Extra Living space in the Finished Basement for an Office and Media/Game Room. Plenty of Room for Cars and Toys in the 2.5 Car detatched Garage equipped with an Escalated Fast Charger AV Charging Station. Solar Panels on the Roof help reduce electricity costs and carbon footprint. A Must See! Peconic Bay Tax applies

2. 2026-04-11
   listed $789,000 Active 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Nestled in the Heart of the North Fork, this Charming Move in Ready Home in Mattituck has 3 Bedrooms and 3 Baths. Close to Beaches, Strong's Marina, Wineries, Local Farmstands, Restaurants and Beloved Love's Lane. Enjoy your morning coffee on the Inviting Covered Porch. Or watch a movie Cozied up infront of the Fire Place that anchors the Living Room. Plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space in the Kitchen. Hardwood Floors on the First and Second Levels. Extra Living space in the Finished Basement for an Office and Media/Game Room. Plenty of Room for Cars and Toys in the 2.5 Car detatched Garage equipped with an Escalated Fast Charger AV Charging Station. Solar Panels on the Roof help reduce electricity costs and carbon footprint. A Must See! Peconic Bay Tax applies

3. 2026-04-03
   historical $789,000 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Nestled in the Heart of the North Fork, this Charming Move in Ready Home in Mattituck has 3 Bedrooms and 3 Baths. Close to Beaches, Strong's Marina, Wineries, Local Farmstands, Restaurants and Beloved Love's Lane. Enjoy your morning coffee on the Inviting Covered Porch. Or watch a movie Cozied up infront of the Fire Place that anchors the Living Room. Plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space in the Kitchen. Hardwood Floors on the First and Second Levels. Extra Living space in the Finished Basement for an Office and Media/Game Room. Plenty of Room for Cars and Toys in the 2.5 Car detatched Garage equipped with an Escalated Fast Charger AV Charging Station. Solar Panels on the Roof help reduce electricity costs and carbon footprint. A Must See! Peconic Bay Tax applies

4. 1991-01-22
   soldstatus $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,155 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,744 · $812/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,590/yr (+$299/mo · 58.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $181,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,196
• − Property taxes: −$6,155
• − Insurance: −$3,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,499
• − Management: −$14,499
• − Depreciation: −$22,953
• Taxable income: $74,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,999
• After-tax cash flow: $65,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+598.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $789,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $789,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,155 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.