4 Mt Hope Ave · Otisville, NY 10963

$359,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,746 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1925 0.30 ac lot $206/sqft · 26% below area Est $435k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pull up a chair, settle onto the front porch, and stay awhile! This charming Craftsman-style home in the village of Otisville feels like the kind of place where time slows down just enough to appreciate life’s quieter moments. With its storybook charm, this four-bedroom home is filled with the character and craftsmanship so rarely found today. Original woodwork details, rich with history and warmth, tell the story of a home that has been lovingly cared for through the years. The formal living room, centered around a wood-burning fireplace, invites cozy winter evenings, while the dining room feels ready for holiday gatherings, Sunday dinners, and conversations that linger long after de

Key facts

• Flexible office
• Renovated bath
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK DETAILS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATH
• FLEXIBLE OFFICE
• BACKYARD RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking and driveway; Total parking for 4 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Security: Video cameras
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Orange & Rockland); Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Actual property condition
• Construction: Cedar and frame construction; Finished, full walk-up attic; Full unfinished basement with Bilco doors
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; Video cameras/security system; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Two-level home with first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Formal dining room; Natural woodwork; Covered patio and porch; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (52.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (41.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (52.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#459 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otisville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 589 students, 30% FRL); Minisink Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 775 students, 28% FRL); Minisink Valley High School (math 94% / reading 75%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,172 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $360k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,166 (52.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.65%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,814
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -17.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Highland Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-7%)	8mo	$410,000	$253	63
9 Mount Hope Ave	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,958 (+12%)	13mo	$350,000	$179	57
29 Seybolt Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,648 (-6%)	20mo	$345,000	$209	57
4 Charlotte Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,960 (+12%)	18mo	$520,000	$265	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $128,502
• Equity at exit: $324,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $431,996
• Equity at exit: $699,207

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10963

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,224/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,446

Max offer price $172,166

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
82 State St Otisville, NY	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,875	$1.40	21d	1	0.60mi
4 Dodd Ln Otisville, NY	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,400	$2.08	13d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $359,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $389,900 Active 1355-char remark
17. 1994-04-29
    soldstatus $102,500
18. 1993-11-12
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,224 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,224 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$8,224
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$19,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minisink Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,292
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1897
• State rank: #254 of 590 in NY

Livability — Otisville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #459
• US rank: #7992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otisville, NY
• City population: 3,940
• Population (ZIP): 3,940

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.65%
• Current HPI: 336.8228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+313.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $359,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $389,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 1993-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,224 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.