5200 Lake Shore Ln · Denton, TX 76208

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 66 sqft · Land public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the good life in this active 55+ community by the Lake, premium lake view lot with covered front porch. Light & bright open floor plan, eat-in kitchen, island, and bar. Large bedrooms, master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Walk-in closets, utility room, newly installed 50 year flooring. Storage building and covered parking. Lot is leased.

Key facts

• View of the water
• Gated community
• Minimal traffic

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• VIEW OF THE WATER
• GATED COMMUNITY
• MINIMAL TRAFFIC
• WILDLIFE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 287 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.77%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $27,430
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $66,326
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76208

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $761	+0% $730	+5% $699	+10% $668
Rent	-10% $595	-5% $662	+0% $730	+5% $798	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $775	-0.5pp $753	base $730	+0.5pp $707	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5280 Atwell Ln Unit D Denton, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.16mi
2008 Village Creek Ln Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	1956	$2,400	$1.23	45d	1	0.86mi
6601 Grissom Rd Denton, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,599	$1.60	4d	1	1.06mi
3209 Capetown Dr Denton, TX	4.0	3.5	3195	$2,850	$0.89	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $90,000 420-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $115,000 Active 420-char remark
17. 2015-07-08
    soldstatus Sold 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Enjoy the good life in this active 55+ community by the Lake, premium lake view lot with covered front porch. Light & bright open floor plan, eat-in kitchen, island, and bar. Large bedrooms, master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Walk-in closets, utility room, newly installed 50 year flooring. Storage building and covered parking. Lot is leased.

18. 2015-06-26
    status Pending 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Enjoy the good life in this active 55+ community by the Lake, premium lake view lot with covered front porch. Light & bright open floor plan, eat-in kitchen, island, and bar. Large bedrooms, master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Walk-in closets, utility room, newly installed 50 year flooring. Storage building and covered parking. Lot is leased.

19. 2015-06-18
    historical Active Option Contract 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Enjoy the good life in this active 55+ community by the Lake, premium lake view lot with covered front porch. Light & bright open floor plan, eat-in kitchen, island, and bar. Large bedrooms, master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Walk-in closets, utility room, newly installed 50 year flooring. Storage building and covered parking. Lot is leased.

20. 2015-06-06
    listed $79,900 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Enjoy the good life in this active 55+ community by the Lake, premium lake view lot with covered front porch. Light & bright open floor plan, eat-in kitchen, island, and bar. Large bedrooms, master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Walk-in closets, utility room, newly installed 50 year flooring. Storage building and covered parking. Lot is leased.

21. 2002-07-12
    soldstatus
22. 2002-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,643
• − Management: −$1,643
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $6,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,025
• Household income: $88,967
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.64%
• Current HPI: 244.3487
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $90,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-07-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-06-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-06-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-06-06 Listed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2002-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $30,085 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.