523 Fairfax Lane Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2020 Poor condition 0.32 ac lot $127/sqft · 15% below area Est $159k · 15% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to Sell!!! 4 Car Garage - (2 cars deep) Split Floor Plan! The Primary bedroom w/En Suite Bath. Kitchen is open to Family Room. Low tax rate adds to the appeal. Located at 523 Fairfax, this Single-Family home features 3 beds, 2 baths, on a 14066 sqft lot. - Convenient location right off newly widened Hwy 105! Plenty of Space for a Garden, Swing Set, Picnic Table, Fire Pitt or a Yard to Play Catch in OR Relax on the Covered Front Porch.

Key facts

• 14066 sqft lot
• En suite
• Front porch

Tags

• GREAT BACKYARD
• FRONT PORCH
• EN SUITE
• LOW TAX RATE
• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• 14066 SQFT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.08%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,222
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -15.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16325 Hunters Greens Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	4mo	$159,990	$132	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,518
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,147
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,973/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 344-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $135,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Priced to Sell!!! 4 Car Garage - (2 cars deep) Split Floor Plan! The Primary bedroom w/En Suite Bath. Kitchen is open to Family Room. Low tax rate adds to the appeal. Located at 523 Fairfax, this Single-Family home features 3 beds, 2 baths, on a 14066 sqft lot. - Convenient location right off newly widened Hwy 105! Plenty of Space for a Garden, Swing Set, Picnic Table, Fire Pitt or a Yard to Play Catch in OR Relax on the Covered Front Porch.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $150,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Priced to Sell!!! 4 Car Garage - (2 cars deep) Split Floor Plan! The Primary bedroom w/En Suite Bath. Kitchen is open to Family Room. Low tax rate adds to the appeal. Located at 523 Fairfax, this Single-Family home features 3 beds, 2 baths, on a 14066 sqft lot. - Convenient location right off newly widened Hwy 105! Plenty of Space for a Garden, Swing Set, Picnic Table, Fire Pitt or a Yard to Play Catch in OR Relax on the Covered Front Porch.

17. 2026-03-24
    historical
18. 2026-02-12
    price $150,000
19. 2025-09-04
    price $155,000
20. 2025-05-06
    price $160,000
21. 2025-04-10
    listed $168,000 Active
22. 2025-04-08
    historical
23. 2025-02-07
    historical
24. 2024-09-01
    price $170,000
25. 2024-08-09
    listed $175,000 Active
26. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$41/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,973
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,612
• − Management: −$1,612
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$620
• After-tax cash flow: $3,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investments in the kitchen, flooring, and exterior are necessary to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major countertops — Severe wear and tear
• Major appliances — Outdated and non-functional
• Major cabinets — Damaged and in poor condition
• Major flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major paint — Chipped and worn in some areas

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New countertops and appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality
• Resale Painting and minor repairs — Enhances the home's appearance and value
• Resale New flooring — Improves the home's overall condition and appeal
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's curb appeal and rental potential

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
countertops · Severe wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
appliances · Outdated and non-functional	Major	$15,000–50,000
cabinets · Damaged and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Chipped and worn in some areas	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New countertops and appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Resale Painting and minor repairs — Enhances the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale New flooring — Improves the home's overall condition and appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's curb appeal and rental potential ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+54.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,973 · -18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.