2801 Oak Cliff Ln · Arlington, TX 76012

$385,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1966 0.26 ac lot $151/sqft · 13% above area Est $405k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home, ideally situated under the shade of mature trees in the highly desirable Oaks of Arlington neighborhood. The home boasts two living areas, including a sun-drenched family room that floods the space with natural light, creating a perfect spot to relax or entertain. The family room and formal living room both feature custom built-in cabinetry and elegant crown molding, offering timeless style and functionality. The spacious dining room is equally impressive with its own custom cabinetry, providing a perfect blend of form and function for hosting family meals or dinner parties. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, st

Key facts

• Spacious dining room
• Two living areas
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OAKS OF ARLINGTON NEIGHBORHOOD
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• CROWN MOLDING
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as Active and For Sale; Possession at closing/funding; Standard listing conditions
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Phone available; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Concrete, curbs
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1966 (preowned); Brick, rock/stone, and stucco exterior; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Outdoor living center; Chain link fencing; Many trees, including oak; Partially wooded lot; Easement(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertop; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath, linen closet, and walk-in closet(s); Additional bedrooms on level 2
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Built-in cabinets (in several rooms); 2 living areas; 1 dining area; 12 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-721 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (39.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pope El (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 524 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 29% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Arlington ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,037 (39.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,002
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Valley Oaks Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,444 (-4%)	2mo	$389,900	$160	81
2601 High Oak Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0	2,575 (+1%)	3mo	$389,999	$151	73
700 Vail Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,634 (+3%)	2mo	$295,000	$112	69
2213 Shadywood Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,707 (+6%)	0mo	$400,000	$148	64
2301 Wood Cliff Ct	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,519 (-1%)	4mo	$457,838	$182	60
1104 Portofino Ct	0.22mi	3/3.0	2,870 (+13%)	6mo	$575,000	$200	60
2305 Oak Forest Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,481 (-3%)	6mo	$554,500	$223	56
1420 Porto Bello Ct	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,780 (+9%)	3mo	$525,000	$189	54
2500 High Oak Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,374 (-7%)	4mo	$410,000	$173	54
1011 Tanglewood Ln	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,290 (-10%)	3mo	$475,000	$207	49
2814 Augusta Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,852 (+12%)	1mo	$550,000	$193	42
3107 Watercress Cir	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,825 (+11%)	5mo	$499,999	$177	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-106,033
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-141,877
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76012

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,595/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,243

Max offer price $257,577

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-503	-5% $-612	+0% $-721	+5% $-830	+10% $-939
Rent	-10% $-905	-5% $-813	+0% $-721	+5% $-629	+10% $-537
Rate	-1.0pp $-527	-0.5pp $-623	base $-721	+0.5pp $-821	+1.0pp $-923

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1019 Loch Lomond Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	3043	$3,900	$1.28	0d	1	0.25mi
705 White Oak Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$1,995	$1.10	44d	1	0.29mi
637 N Bowen Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,800	$1.53	44d	1	0.40mi
603 Pine Meadow Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,350	$1.18	25d	1	0.61mi
506 Claire Ct Arlington, TX	2.0	1.5	1952	$1,600	$0.82	11d	1	0.61mi
2409 Springmont Ct Unit 2409 Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1916	$1,800	$0.94	44d	1	0.61mi
2409 Springmont Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	1.0	1916	$1,875	$0.98	44d	1	0.61mi
502 Bellevue Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,000	$1.13	21d	1	0.67mi
2113 Fleur De Lis Ct Arlington, TX	2.0	2.5	1750	$1,850	$1.06	25d	1	0.84mi
2109 Fleur De Lis Ct Arlington, TX	2.0	2.5	2930	$1,700	$0.58	25d	1	0.85mi
1304 Cog Hill Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	2636	$3,000	$1.14	44d	1	1.06mi
2806 Buffalo Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,150	$1.16	44d	1	1.13mi
514 Norwood Cir W Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	2604	$1,850	$0.71	25d	1	1.21mi
1825 Kingsbrook Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	1818	$2,195	$1.21	44d	1	1.33mi
2414 S Graham Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,150	$1.13	8d	1	1.42mi
8129 Trudy Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2647	$3,500	$1.32	44d	1	1.43mi
3002 Friendswood Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,295	$1.21	25d	1	1.46mi
426 Westview Ter Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,100	$1.12	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $385,000 Active 1421-char remark
16. 2025-11-05
    historical
17. 2025-09-16
    price $375,000
18. 2025-07-26
    listed $390,000 Active
19. 2025-05-08
    historical
20. 2025-04-09
    price $399,900
21. 2025-02-19
    listed $422,000 Active
22. 2009-12-07
    soldstatus
23. 2009-12-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,595 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,046 · $587/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,451/yr (+$204/mo · 53.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$4,595
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$15,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808700
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,873
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7458
• State rank: #629 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2697

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 366,588
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,991
• Household income: $88,141
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 20% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -281.05%
• Current HPI: 259.0255
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $385,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $375,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-26 Listed $390,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $399,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $422,000 NTREIS
• 2009-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,595 · -17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.