2048 Carroll Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$444,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,450 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1900 8,276 sqft lot $181/sqft · 9% below area Est $569k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for great cash flow as an owner-investor or to live in your own building for nearly free? This property is located in St. Paul's peaceful Merriam Park and is filled with Victorian-era charm. It features newer breaker panels, maintenance free vinyl siding, four high-efficiency forced air furnaces for heating (central air could be added), and a massive yard on an oversized city lot. There is copious amounts of storage with an unused walk up attic, full basement, and huge over-sized garage. This property generates over $49,000 annually and could have room to add income from utility sharing. Easy to manage and completely turn-key, with a unit ready for any owner-occupant buyer. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $444k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $444k).
• Recommended offer: $417k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Park Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #534 of 857 statewide, top 66%, 372 students, 44% FRL); Hidden River Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #199 of 258 statewide, top 78%, 559 students, 61% FRL); Central Senior High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,691 students, 49% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Paul Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,626/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $258k; list at $444k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $417,360 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $569,464
• List price: $444,000
• Delta: -22.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-49,612
• Equity at exit: $66,202

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-20,329
• Equity at exit: $38,389

Cash invested: $124,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,328
• Tax from tax record: −$757 /mo · $9,086/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$971
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,140

Max offer price $444,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $635	-5% $510	+0% $384	+5% $258	+10% $133
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $201	+0% $384	+5% $567	+10% $749
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $497	base $384	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $152

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,626
Total (2 units)			$4,626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,000
• Closing costs: $13,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$4,394	$3.89	0d	6	1.08mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $444,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $444,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $444,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $444,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $444,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $444,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $444,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $444,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $444,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $444,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $444,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $444,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $444,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $444,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $444,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Looking for great cash flow as an owner-investor or to live in your own building for nearly free? This property is located in St. Paul's peaceful Merriam Park and is filled with Victorian-era charm. It features newer breaker panels, maintenance free vinyl siding, four high-efficiency forced air furnaces for heating (central air could be added), and a massive yard on an oversized city lot. There is copious amounts of storage with an unused walk up attic, full basement, and huge over-sized garage. This property generates over $49,000 annually and could have room to add income from utility sharing. Easy to manage and completely turn-key, with a unit ready for any owner-occupant buyer. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $449,000 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Looking for great cash flow as an owner-investor or to live in your own building for nearly free? This property is located in St. Paul's peaceful Merriam Park and is filled with Victorian-era charm. It features newer breaker panels, maintenance free vinyl siding, four high-efficiency forced air furnaces for heating (central air could be added), and a massive yard on an oversized city lot. There is copious amounts of storage with an unused walk up attic, full basement, and huge over-sized garage. This property generates over $49,000 annually and could have room to add income from utility sharing. Easy to manage and completely turn-key, with a unit ready for any owner-occupant buyer. Schedule your private showing today!

17. 2026-04-21
    historical $449,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Looking for great cash flow as an owner-investor or to live in your own building for nearly free? This property is located in St. Paul's peaceful Merriam Park and is filled with Victorian-era charm. It features newer breaker panels, maintenance free vinyl siding, four high-efficiency forced air furnaces for heating (central air could be added), and a massive yard on an oversized city lot. There is copious amounts of storage with an unused walk up attic, full basement, and huge over-sized garage. This property generates over $49,000 annually and could have room to add income from utility sharing. Easy to manage and completely turn-key, with a unit ready for any owner-occupant buyer. Schedule your private showing today!

18. 2025-12-28
    historical $899
19. 2025-12-28
    historical $899
20. 2025-12-24
    listed $899
21. 2025-12-24
    listed $999
22. 2023-07-25
    historical
23. 2023-05-16
    price $425,000
24. 2023-03-31
    price $439,900
25. 2023-02-24
    listed $449,900 Active
26. 2023-02-21
    historical
27. 2022-11-23
    historical
28. 2022-11-17
    status Active
29. 2022-11-07
    historical Contingent - Inspection
30. 2022-09-07
    price $449,900
31. 2022-08-10
    price $454,900
32. 2022-07-07
    listed $459,900 Active
33. 2002-08-13
    soldstatus $258,500
34. 2002-08-01
    soldstatus $258,500
35. 2002-06-14
    historical
36. 2002-06-10
    listed $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,086 · $757/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,086 · $757/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,871
• − Property taxes: −$9,086
• − Insurance: −$2,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,441
• − Management: −$4,441
• − Depreciation: −$12,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $5,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+77.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $444,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $449,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Coming Soon $449,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-28 Rental Removed $899 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-28 Rental Removed $899 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-24 Listed for Rent $899 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-24 Listed for Rent $999 RENTALBEAST
• 2023-07-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $425,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $439,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-24 Listed $449,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-21 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-07 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-07 Price Changed $449,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-10 Price Changed $454,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-07 Listed $459,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $258,500 Public Records
• 2002-08-01 Sold (MLS) $258,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-10 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,086 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.