12 Simson St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1900 2,525 sqft lot $166/sqft · 34% below area Est $251k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ABSOLUTELY ADORABLE BUNGALOW IN THE CITY OF TONAWANDA. GREAT FRONT PORCH TO SIT & ENJOY SPRING WHICH IS JUST A FEW WEEKS AWAY!!!! SPACIOUS KITCHEN WITH OAK CABINETS & PANTRY. LIVING ROOM & DINING ROOM WITH FIRST FLOOR FULL BATH. 2 SPACIOUS UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS WITH A BONUS ROOM WHICH CAN BE USED AS AN OFFICE, PLAY ROOM, DEN OR EVEN AN ADDITIONAL BEDROOM!! FULL BASEMENT, FULLY FENCED LANDSCAPED YARD FOR SUMMER ENTERTAINMENT - GRILL INCLUDED. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS GREAT HOME AT A GREAT PRICE!!!

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Pantry storage
• Full bathroom

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETRY
• PANTRY STORAGE
• FULL BATHROOM
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Mixed/varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Country-style kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (in basement); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $165k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $158,152 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,201
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -34.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,989
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $25,901
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,374/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $165	+0% $118	+5% $71	+10% $25
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $56	+0% $118	+5% $181	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $160	base $118	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	0.62mi
1974 Newell Ave Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	4d	3	1.01mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.04mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	1.08mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	2d	9	1.08mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	2d	35	1.25mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	2d	9	1.30mi
4-18 Concord Ct Tonawanda, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$1,395	$1.91	4d	1	1.38mi
268-360 Hinds St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	500	$1,214	$2.43	12d	1	1.38mi
399 Miller St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $169,900 Active 1008-char remark
17. 2015-05-22
    soldstatus $69,000
18. 2015-05-01
    soldstatus $69,000 Closed Sale or Rented 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    ABSOLUTELY ADORABLE BUNGALOW IN THE CITY OF TONAWANDA. GREAT FRONT PORCH TO SIT & ENJOY SPRING WHICH IS JUST A FEW WEEKS AWAY!!!! SPACIOUS KITCHEN WITH OAK CABINETS & PANTRY. LIVING ROOM & DINING ROOM WITH FIRST FLOOR FULL BATH. 2 SPACIOUS UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS WITH A BONUS ROOM WHICH CAN BE USED AS AN OFFICE, PLAY ROOM, DEN OR EVEN AN ADDITIONAL BEDROOM!! FULL BASEMENT, FULLY FENCED LANDSCAPED YARD FOR SUMMER ENTERTAINMENT - GRILL INCLUDED. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS GREAT HOME AT A GREAT PRICE!!!

19. 2015-02-28
    listed $69,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    ABSOLUTELY ADORABLE BUNGALOW IN THE CITY OF TONAWANDA. GREAT FRONT PORCH TO SIT & ENJOY SPRING WHICH IS JUST A FEW WEEKS AWAY!!!! SPACIOUS KITCHEN WITH OAK CABINETS & PANTRY. LIVING ROOM & DINING ROOM WITH FIRST FLOOR FULL BATH. 2 SPACIOUS UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS WITH A BONUS ROOM WHICH CAN BE USED AS AN OFFICE, PLAY ROOM, DEN OR EVEN AN ADDITIONAL BEDROOM!! FULL BASEMENT, FULLY FENCED LANDSCAPED YARD FOR SUMMER ENTERTAINMENT - GRILL INCLUDED. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS GREAT HOME AT A GREAT PRICE!!!

20. 2012-12-12
    historical
21. 2012-07-31
    listed $68,900
22. 2009-06-19
    soldstatus $63,000
23. 2005-08-23
    soldstatus $55,000
24. 1997-12-05
    soldstatus $48,000
25. 1996-11-22
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,374 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,580 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,374
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+559.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-01 Sold (MLS) $69,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-02-28 Listed $69,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-12-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2012-07-31 Listed $68,900 WNYREIS
• 2009-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,374 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.