Is 3193 Timberwild in Wills Point, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.5% cap rate and $19/mo modeled cash flow at a $139,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3193 Timberwild?

The modeled cap rate is 6.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,155/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.88

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +14.0/30.0
ARV discount +10.9/15.0
DSCR +4.3/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.3/10.0
Schools +3.2/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

$139,000

3193 Timberwild · Wills Point, TX 75169

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 204 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2024 Good condition 0.32 ac lot $150/sqft · 8% below area Est $150k · 8% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

2024 Singlewide manufactured home. Come see this 3 bed 2 bath home on a third of an acre. This home is located in a quiet lakeside community with a private park and boat launch. Access to beautiful Lake Tawakoni is at your disposal. The home has never been lived in and awaits your creativity to make it your own. Brinwood Shores is one of the best well-kept subdivisions on Lake Tawakoni. Super low HOA and quiet neighbors make it a great place for all residents. Mature trees create a bird sanctuary for so many birds that fill the air with sounds of nature. Information provided in this listing to be verified by buyer and buyer's agent. No written or expressed guarantees made herein.

Key facts

Boat launch
Lakeside community
Private park

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($224/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (16.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $116k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.8% in Wills Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,174 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 460 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,500 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.83% ✗
Cap rate: 6.45%
Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
DSCR: 1.03
GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $150,342
List price: $139,000
Delta: -7.54%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9949 Greentree Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-3%)	3mo	$90,000	$100	84
9956 Greentree Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+25%)	16mo	$105,000	$91	59
10032 Brinwood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+21%)	13mo	$475,000	$424	58
10021 Northview Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-6%)	18mo	$134,900	$156	56
10122 Ash Cv	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (+20%)	0mo	$269,000	$244	54
10108 Shoreline Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,005 (+9%)	20mo	$149,900	$149	48
10181 Torama St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-13%)	4mo	$119,999	$150	46
10536 County Road 3707	0.96mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	5mo	$159,000	$162	42
TBD Debord St	1.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-6%)	6mo	$139,000	$161	41
3016 Payne St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+15%)	8mo	$62,500	$59	36
10131 County Road 3705	0.81mi	2/1.0 (-1)	819 (-11%)	6mo	$275,000	$336	32
10156 Patton Dr	0.99mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-17%)	14mo	$149,000	$194	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -15.4%
Equity multiple: 0.45×
Total profit: $-21,357
Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

IRR: -6.9%
Equity multiple: 0.56×
Total profit: $-17,160
Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $243,750 ($283/sqft)
Median days on market: 98 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -42.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75169

Home prices YoY: -15.4%
Active inventory: 460
Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,155 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$729
Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
Insurance: −$58
HOA: −$8
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $58	+0% $19	+5% $-21	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-27	+0% $19	+5% $64	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $54	base $19	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $34,750
Closing costs: $4,170
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10481 Private Road 3709 #11 Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	0d	1	0.79mi
10481 Private Road 3709 #11 Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	69d	1	0.79mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Listing is active and offered For SalePossession at closing/funding
Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
HOA & community: Mandatory associationAnnual HOA fee of $100HOA includes management feesHOA managed by Brinwood Shores (phone available)

Exterior

Parking: Gravel parkingOff-street parkingOn-site parking
Security: Video surveillance presentConsent for audio and video recording for visitors
Utilities: Aerobic septicCo-op electricCo-op waterNot in a municipal utility district
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyAttached property (yes)Built in 2024
Construction: Year built 2024
Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acreSubdivision: Brinwood Shores Add Sec BDirections provided to property

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenElectric rangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom on main level
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)Ceiling fan(s)
Interior features: Open floorplanOne level (single-story)9 total rooms1 living area1 dining area
Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $139,000 Active 204 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $139,000 Active 203 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $139,000 Active 202 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $139,000 Active 201 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $139,000 Active 200 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $139,000 Active 198 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $139,000 Active 197 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $139,000 Active 196 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $139,000 Active 195 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $139,000 Active 194 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $139,000 Active 193 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $139,000 Active 192 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $139,000 Active 191 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $139,000 Active 190 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $139,000 Active 189 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $139,000 Active 188 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $139,000 Active 187 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $139,000 Active 186 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $139,000 Active 185 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $139,000 Active 184 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $139,000 Active 183 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $139,000 Active 182 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $139,000 Active 181 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $139,000 Active 180 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $139,000 Active 179 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $139,000 Active 178 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $139,000 Active 177 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $139,000 Active 176 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $139,000 Active 175 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $139,000 Active 174 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $139,000 Active 173 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $139,000 Active 172 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $139,000 Active 171 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $139,000 Active 170 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $139,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $139,000 Active 168 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $139,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $139,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $139,000 Active 165 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $139,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $139,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $139,000 Active 162 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $139,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $139,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $139,000 Active 159 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $139,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $139,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $139,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $139,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $139,000 Active 154 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
Expected delta: +$1,357/yr (+$113/mo · 114.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $13,860
− Mortgage interest: −$7,786
− Property taxes: −$1,187
− Insurance: −$695
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,109
− Management: −$1,109
− HOA: −$96
− Depreciation: −$4,044
Taxable loss: −$2,165

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$520
After-tax cash flow: $744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,620–$13,860 screening

This 2024 singlewide manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a quiet lakeside location. It is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for investment.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding a front porch or patio — Can increase both resale and rental value by providing outdoor living space and enhancing curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary D C Cannon El Middle C B Thompson Middle F TX #858/1,662 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Wh Ford H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Quinlan ISD
NCES district ID: 4836240
Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $45,461
Composite: 26.16/100
National rank: #7271
State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Wills Point

Score: 59/100
State rank: #1174
US rank: #20542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Van Zandt · 97,090 people
City population: 15,744
Population (ZIP): 15,744
Household income: $67,879
Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 97,090 people
By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
Current HPI: 250.2271
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-04-29 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
2026-04-16 Listed $155,000 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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