7781 W Gypsum St · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$153,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1994 4,487 sqft lot $133/sqft · 32% below area Est $226k · 32% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced. HUD Home. Save Thousands. Bargain hunters delight a rare opportunity. Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Large kitchen. No steps ground set home. Screened in patio, with workshop. Additional covered patio in rear, 2 car carport. Desirable gated active 55+ Adult Community with community pool and active rec center. Perfect for year-round or winter home. Investors or 2nd home buyers are welcome to bid. Bidding on a HUD Home is EZ Buyers or agents, please call for help with the bidding process. Buyers responsible for utility turn-on and any required permits for utility connect and re-winterization fee. Buyer to verify all info. Also view 360 Dollhouse 3D Virtual tour.

Key facts

• 4,487 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.32%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,066
• List price: $153,000
• Delta: -32.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7731 W Touchstone St	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	5mo	$180,000	$152	88
3477 S Goldleaf Loop	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-4%)	2mo	$229,900	$208	79
7751 W Gypsum St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	11mo	$207,500	$168	78
7771 W Touchstone St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$150,000	$120	74
3490 S Beryl Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,252 (+9%)	16mo	$240,000	$192	63
7678 W Silver Nugget St	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-4%)	20mo	$226,000	$205	61
3493 S Cadmium Loop	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	22mo	$215,000	$207	56
4175 S Desert Spur Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	8mo	$115,000	$88	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,581
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $24,243
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $917/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $153,000 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Price Reduced. HUD Home. Save Thousands. Bargain hunters delight a rare opportunity. Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Large kitchen. No steps ground set home. Screened in patio, with workshop. Additional covered patio in rear, 2 car carport. Desirable gated active 55+ Adult Community with community pool and active rec center. Perfect for year-round or winter home. Investors or 2nd home buyers are welcome to bid. Bidding on a HUD Home is EZ Buyers or agents, please call for help with the bidding process. Buyers responsible for utility turn-on and any required permits for utility connect and re-winterization fee. Buyer to verify all info. Also view 360 Dollhouse 3D Virtual tour.

2. 2026-04-15
   status Active 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Price Reduced. HUD Home. Save Thousands. Bargain hunters delight a rare opportunity. Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Large kitchen. No steps ground set home. Screened in patio, with workshop. Additional covered patio in rear, 2 car carport. Desirable gated active 55+ Adult Community with community pool and active rec center. Perfect for year-round or winter home. Investors or 2nd home buyers are welcome to bid. Bidding on a HUD Home is EZ Buyers or agents, please call for help with the bidding process. Buyers responsible for utility turn-on and any required permits for utility connect and re-winterization fee. Buyer to verify all info. Also view 360 Dollhouse 3D Virtual tour.

3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Price Reduced. HUD Home. Save Thousands. Bargain hunters delight a rare opportunity. Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Large kitchen. No steps ground set home. Screened in patio, with workshop. Additional covered patio in rear, 2 car carport. Desirable gated active 55+ Adult Community with community pool and active rec center. Perfect for year-round or winter home. Investors or 2nd home buyers are welcome to bid. Bidding on a HUD Home is EZ Buyers or agents, please call for help with the bidding process. Buyers responsible for utility turn-on and any required permits for utility connect and re-winterization fee. Buyer to verify all info. Also view 360 Dollhouse 3D Virtual tour.

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $170,000 Active 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Price Reduced. HUD Home. Save Thousands. Bargain hunters delight a rare opportunity. Spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Large kitchen. No steps ground set home. Screened in patio, with workshop. Additional covered patio in rear, 2 car carport. Desirable gated active 55+ Adult Community with community pool and active rec center. Perfect for year-round or winter home. Investors or 2nd home buyers are welcome to bid. Bidding on a HUD Home is EZ Buyers or agents, please call for help with the bidding process. Buyers responsible for utility turn-on and any required permits for utility connect and re-winterization fee. Buyer to verify all info. Also view 360 Dollhouse 3D Virtual tour.

5. 2023-09-11
   status Pending 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

6. 2023-08-25
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

7. 2023-08-25
   soldstatus $206,000

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

8. 2023-08-01
   historical Active Contingent 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

9. 2023-07-29
   status Active 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

10. 2023-07-05
    historical Active Contingent 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

11. 2023-06-20
    listed $199,999 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    ***MOVE IN READY*** showcasing 2-carport parking is awaiting new owners! Come see inside to discover welcoming living and dining rooms, vaulted ceilings, an exposed beam, tile/soft carpet, and abundant natural light. The immaculate kitchen has matchy appliances, plenty of white cabinetry, a skylight, and ample counter space for all your cooking needs. Continue onto the carpeted main bedroom boasting a private bathroom and a walk-in closet. Take advantage of the workshop area with a built-in desk, an airy AZ room, and a covered patio perfect for relaxation! Ideally located in the desirable Copper Crest, a 55+ active Community with lots of amenities for you to enjoy- a recreation room, clubhouse, pool, spa, & more.!Hurry Schedule your home preview today! Motivated Seller!!

12. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus $118,500 Closed
13. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus $118,500
14. 2017-11-21
    status Pending
15. 2017-11-03
    listed $121,900 Active
16. 1994-09-26
    soldstatus $20,950
17. 1989-03-01
    soldstatus $1,300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,010 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$917
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $1,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$395
• After-tax cash flow: $3,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-88.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $153,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-07 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-26 Listed $170,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-11 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-25 Sold (MLS) $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-01 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-07-29 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-07-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-20 Listed $199,999 MLSSAZ
• 2017-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2017-12-12 Sold (MLS) $118,500 MLSSAZ
• 2017-11-21 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-11-03 Listed $121,900 MLSSAZ
• 1994-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $20,950 Public Records
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $917 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.