2201 2nd Ave SW · Rochester, MN 55902

$279,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity 2 lots with nice home with some recent updates including vinyl siding, replacement windows, updated kitchen, updated hvac, large cement patio area, privacy, great SW location, view before it's gone!!

Key facts

• Quiet living
• Big lot
• Built 1975

Tags

• BIG LOT
• QUIET LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1975
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,688
• Exterior features: Located in the Apple Hill subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-563 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (48.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $280k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $144,464 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-83,401
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-127,531
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55902

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,426/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $180,617

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-404	-5% $-483	+0% $-563	+5% $-642	+10% $-721
Rent	-10% $-677	-5% $-620	+0% $-563	+5% $-506	+10% $-448
Rate	-1.0pp $-422	-0.5pp $-491	base $-563	+0.5pp $-635	+1.0pp $-709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 18th St SW Unit 5 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.5	1036	$1,545	$1.49	21d	1	0.40mi
1732 2nd Ave SE Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	780	$1,450	$1.86	14d	1	0.54mi
1537 6th Ave SE Unit 1523-D Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	14d	1	0.90mi
1427 6th Ave SE Unit 4 Rochester, MN	1.0	1.0	650	$825	$1.27	44d	1	1.01mi
504 14th St SE #6 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	725	$995	$1.37	44d	1	1.02mi
2094 11th Ave SE Unit D Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	827	$1,350	$1.63	14d	1	1.15mi
524 10th St SE Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,475	$1.74	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,999 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,999 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,999 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,999 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,999 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $279,999 Active 1230-char remark
19. 2019-08-20
    soldstatus $159,000 Sold 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Great opportunity 2 lots with nice home with some recent updates including vinyl siding, replacement windows, updated kitchen, updated hvac, large cement patio area, privacy, great SW location, view before it's gone!!

20. 2019-07-24
    status Pending 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Great opportunity 2 lots with nice home with some recent updates including vinyl siding, replacement windows, updated kitchen, updated hvac, large cement patio area, privacy, great SW location, view before it's gone!!

21. 2019-07-16
    listed $159,900 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Great opportunity 2 lots with nice home with some recent updates including vinyl siding, replacement windows, updated kitchen, updated hvac, large cement patio area, privacy, great SW location, view before it's gone!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,281 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$855/yr (+$71/mo · 60.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,426
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$12,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 26,464
• Household income: $120,611
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.29%
• Current HPI: 252.3502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+75.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $279,999 FSBO.com
• 2019-08-20 Sold (MLS) $159,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-16 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,426 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.