5765 Post Oak Loop · Midway, TX 75852

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1982 0.46 ac lot $123/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mobile home is located in a quiet area known as Midway. It is just a minute fron 21 HWY and 12 minutes from Madisonville. Utilities are already in place with both electricity and a water source available.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 114 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-195/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,549 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,230 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -53.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,418
• Equity at exit: $59,418

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $44,676
• Equity at exit: $85,758

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75852

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $147,131

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-02-24
    listed $150,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This mobile home is located in a quiet area known as Midway. It is just a minute fron 21 HWY and 12 minutes from Madisonville. Utilities are already in place with both electricity and a water source available.

17. 2020-03-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,195/yr (+$183/mo · 399.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$685
• After-tax cash flow: $490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madisonville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,234
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #3102
• State rank: #177 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midway

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1549
• US rank: #26411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,166

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,350 people
• By 2030: 14,854 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 15,876 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 16,631 · +15.9%
• By 2075: 18,375 · +28.0%
• By 2100: 18,600 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 29% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.6% · R 82.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+58.2 2016: R+57.6 2012: R+51.3 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 229.4053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $150,000 BCSRMLS
• 2020-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.