8137 N Raider Rd · Middletown, IN 47356

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1900 0.53 ac lot $68/sqft · 21% below area Est $134k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.2% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#235 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah School Corporation (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #118 of 301 in IN (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 47 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.92%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,801
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -33.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 N 5th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,314 (+0%)	3mo	$166,900	$127	70
252 N 6th St	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,260 (-4%)	11mo	$120,000	$95	55
508 N 5th St	0.70mi	2/1.5	1,405 (+7%)	3mo	$170,000	$121	51
512 N 5th St	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,405 (+7%)	9mo	$168,900	$120	45
829 High St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,486 (+13%)	8mo	$138,400	$93	40
553 Liberty St	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,503 (+15%)	8mo	$163,000	$108	37
1215 Locust St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,405 (+7%)	15mo	$143,000	$102	36
993 High St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+15%)	11mo	$204,000	$135	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,629
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $32,878
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47356

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $356	+0% $331	+5% $305	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $285	+0% $331	+5% $376	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $353	base $331	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 S Crestwood Dr Middletown, IN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,160	$0.95	2d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $89,000 Active
3. 2016-11-22
   historical
4. 2016-11-07
   listed $49,900
5. 2016-11-07
   listed $49,900
6. 2002-07-12
   historical
7. 2001-10-12
   listed $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $2,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$645
• After-tax cash flow: $3,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808280
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,961
• Composite: 36.22/100
• National rank: #4723
• State rank: #118 of 301 in IN

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #10188

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,508

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,028 people
• By 2030: 47,125 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 44,820 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 42,207 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 35,814 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 26,779 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.3% · R 73.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.9pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.87%
• Current HPI: 240.0691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+28.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $89,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-22 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-07 Listed $49,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-07 Listed $49,900 IRMLS
• 2002-07-12 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-12 Listed $69,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $985 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.