1129 Wagstaff Ln · Scottsburg, VA 24589

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Family home for sale with 3 bedrooms and two full baths. Living room is open and has a fireplace. Perfect for family living or rental investment

Key facts

• Built 2000
• Listed 20 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#323 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Halifax County Public School District (town): math 29% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #116 of 131 in VA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Halifax County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Halifax County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.81%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1145 Burton Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+11%)	5mo	$335,000	$224	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $52,193
• Equity at exit: $62,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $135,125
• Equity at exit: $113,956

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24589

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $393	+0% $365	+5% $337	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $270	-5% $317	+0% $365	+5% $413	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $390	base $365	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $99,000 Under Contract 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-27
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 122.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$699
• After-tax cash flow: $3,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Halifax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -51.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,137
• Composite: 36.36/100
• National rank: #4687
• State rank: #116 of 131 in VA

Livability — Scottsburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #11757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,859

Population outlook (Halifax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,892 people
• By 2030: 31,438 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 28,350 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 25,553 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 20,217 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 14,645 · -55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 29% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Halifax

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 39.1% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Current HPI: 160.1469
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $99,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $365 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.