29 Edinburgh Ln Unit D · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$218,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,153 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot Est $221k · at est. $404/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated Baronet model in the sought-after 55+ community of Leisure Village West. This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features newer vinyl flooring throughout. The kitchen offers beveled-edge counters, a countertop range, wall oven and tile backsplash. The main bath is fully renovated with an oversized stall shower. Additional highlights include a half bath, pull down attic and attached direct entry garage. There are newer windows, 6-panel doors, water heater and C/A. Enjoy year-round comfort in the four-season sunroom with heat and A/C perfect for entertaining or just relaxing. Leisure Village West offers a wealth of clubs and activities for your enjoyment.

Key facts

• Newer vinyl flooring
• Tile backsplash
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED BARONET MODEL
• NEWER VINYL FLOORING
• BEVELED-EDGE COUNTERS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• FULLY RENOVATED MAIN BATH
• OVERSIZED STALL SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($598/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,616 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Edinburgh Ln Unit D	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-9%)	4mo	$255,000	$243	78
32B Edinburgh Ln	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,050 (-9%)	1mo	$172,500	$164	76
78D Buckingham Dr N	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+7%)	5mo	$282,000	$228	75
110 Buckingham Dr Unit B	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+10%)	4mo	$190,000	$150	74
32C Yorkshire Ct	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-9%)	1mo	$190,000	$181	74
56B Buckingham Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+7%)	3mo	$212,900	$172	72
4b Cambridge Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+7%)	3mo	$210,000	$170	72
478A Buckingham Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+1%)	3mo	$259,000	$223	71
22B Buckingham Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,065 (-8%)	5mo	$205,000	$192	66
6D Gramercy Ln	0.47mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-9%)	2mo	$275,000	$262	61
61 Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-9%)	5mo	$249,000	$237	61
655-A Pulham Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+8%)	2mo	$225,000	$181	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,010
• Equity at exit: $32,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,625
• Equity at exit: $18,926

Cash invested: $61,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,284/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$404
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $218,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $125	+0% $50	+5% $-26	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-48	+0% $50	+5% $148	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $106	base $50	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,725
• Closing costs: $6,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	45d	1	0.07mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	0.74mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	45d	1	0.77mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	45d	1	1.02mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	1.02mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	1.19mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	45d	1	1.22mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	1.44mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $404 · $4,848/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $218,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,262
• − Property taxes: −$3,284
• − Insurance: −$1,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − HOA: −$4,848
• − Depreciation: −$6,368
• Taxable loss: −$2,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$663
• After-tax cash flow: $1,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Leisure Village West is in good condition with recent updates and improvements, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Newer windows and doors — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash and countertop — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Newer windows and doors — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash and countertop — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $218,900 MOMLS