317 Prospect St · Lockport, NY 14094

$189,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1915 3,920 sqft lot Est $208k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 4-bedroom Lockport home in a great location close to schools, restaurants and shops. Covered front porch, detached garage and freshly painted exterior. Inside features natural woodwork, hardwood flooring, high ceilings and formal dining room! Full attic that can be used for storage or finished off in the future. Closet on first floor has the potential to add an additional half-bath to the home. Enjoy the 3-season sunroom! Showings begin immediately.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Natural woodwork
• Hardwood flooring

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• HIGH CEILINGS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-179/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $166,677 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
270 Grand St	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+5%)	2mo	$195,000	$99	80
12 Harvey Ave	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,902 (+2%)	12mo	$150,000	$79	58
187 Lock St	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,956 (+4%)	8mo	$200,000	$102	55
35 Corinthia St	0.36mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-11%)	1mo	$185,000	$111	55
474 Hawley St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,638 (-12%)	0mo	$85,000	$52	54
482 Hawley St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,666 (-11%)	3mo	$201,400	$121	54
27 Saxton St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,672 (-11%)	6mo	$72,000	$43	50
404 Michigan St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,698 (-9%)	1mo	$289,000	$170	48
101 Webb St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,684 (-10%)	9mo	$180,000	$107	41
26 Amelia St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-14%)	9mo	$179,000	$111	30
70 Minard St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-12%)	11mo	$185,017	$112	28
109 Minard St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	8mo	$194,000	$121	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,555
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-22,977
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,080/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $187,261

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $189,900 Active
4. 2020-06-03
   soldstatus $140,000
5. 2005-02-28
   soldstatus $75,190
6. 2004-07-07
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,080 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,080
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+153.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $75,190 Public Records
• 2004-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,080 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.