3813 Ontario Way · Sherman, TX 75090

$210,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,358 sqft lot $150/sqft · 7% below area Est $226k · 7% under $83/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Luella Crossing - Idlewood Floorplan This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features across appliances, construction, doors, insulation, windows, thermostat and enhanced air filtration; Water-conserving low-flow fixtures
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; association provides full use of facilities and management services

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20' wide x 18' deep); 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story (main level living); Property attached: Yes
• Construction: New construction (incomplete) — built 2026; Fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Smart home features available
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Natural stone/granite countertops; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level; Primary bedroom on the main level with dual sinks and linen closet
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island and pantry; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dillingham El (837 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 473 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,190 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,687
• List price: $210,999
• Delta: -6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3800 Ontario Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,411 (0%)	1mo	$221,549	$157	97
3929 Pontchartrain Pkwy	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,411 (0%)	1mo	$214,999	$152	95
3918 Ontario Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-1%)	3mo	$217,999	$155	94
3912 Pontchartrain Pkwy	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-1%)	4mo	$212,974	$152	92
3808 Ontario Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	2mo	$206,999	$164	80
3428 Spur Run	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-6%)	1mo	$243,490	$183	71
3812 Ontario Way	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+13%)	1mo	$226,999	$142	71
4408 Carnation Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-6%)	3mo	$250,990	$188	69
3406 Tomahawk Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-6%)	3mo	$248,490	$187	69
3905 Pontchartrain Pkwy	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+13%)	3mo	$228,199	$143	67
3933 Pontchartrain Pkwy	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+13%)	2mo	$228,149	$143	67
3907 Sky Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+8%)	1mo	$244,990	$161	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-46,414
• Equity at exit: $31,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-69,621
• Equity at exit: $18,243

Cash invested: $59,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75090

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 473
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$264 /mo · $3,165/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $195,116

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,750
• Closing costs: $6,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3809 Ontario Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	21d	1	0.03mi
3914 Ontario Way Sherman, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	21d	1	0.03mi
3807 Pontchartrain Pkwy Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,650	$1.17	21d	1	0.06mi
3902 Talisker Blvd Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,100	$1.21	21d	1	0.31mi
3825 Cherry Hills Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,100	$1.32	43d	1	0.35mi
1601 FM1417 Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,449	$1.00	21d	1	0.42mi
3740 Paradise Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$1,899	$1.08	43d	1	0.42mi
3740 Paradise Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$1,750	$1.00	21d	1	0.42mi
1108 El Sol Blvd Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$1,999	$1.16	43d	1	0.42mi
3716 Paradise Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1756	$1,900	$1.08	43d	1	0.43mi
1205 Morgan Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1775	$1,850	$1.04	21d	1	0.44mi
1127 Mesa St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,250	$1.30	21d	1	0.45mi
3717 Malibu Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	0.45mi
3730 Malibu Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,300	$1.38	21d	1	0.47mi
2700 S Travis St Sherman, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$950	$1.08	21d	1	1.37mi
2306 San Jacinto Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,795	$1.07	21d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 468-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   price $210,999 468-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   price $215,999 468-char remark
4. 2026-04-23
   listed $219,999 Active 468-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,819
• − Property taxes: −$3,165
• − Insurance: −$1,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$6,138
• Taxable loss: −$4,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,178
• After-tax cash flow: $-139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with no visible major issues. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it a solid investment with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters.
• Both Updating the kitchen and bathrooms — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value by making it more modern and appealing to a wider range of buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen and bathrooms — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value by making it more modern and appealing to a wider range of buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840080
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,587
• Composite: 28.79/100
• National rank: #6665
• State rank: #546 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1027
• US rank: #18243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 54,936
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,594
• Household income: $55,543
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.00%
• Current HPI: 276.5739
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.70%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $210,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $215,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $219,999 NTREIS