4713 Lake Dr · Alvin, TX 77583

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily · 221 Days on market

Built 1982 Poor condition 1.50 ac lot $129/sqft · 36% below area Est $312k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL on 1.52 ACRES! Opportunity knocks! Situated on a sprawling 1.52-acre lot, this property offers incredible potential for a buyer looking to customize their dream country retreat. With a highly competitive asking price, this is a rare chance to own a sizable piece of Texas land and home at an unbeatable value. The existing 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides an excellent footprint to work with. Imagine the possibilities with this expansive lot—perfect for gardening, raising animals, building a large workshop, or having plenty of space for outdoor hobbies and activities. The property is mostly private and includes a handy shed for extra storage. Enjoy low utility costs with existing septic and well systems. Enjoy privacy and space afforded by the expansive, fully fenced lot (needs repair) This property is being sold AS-IS and is ready for a full renovation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to invest and create substantial value. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Handy shed
• 1.52 acres
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• 1.52 ACRES
• SPRAWLING LOT
• SIZABLE PIECE OF TEXAS LAND
• HANDY SHED
• FULLY FENCED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-226/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.0% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frontier El (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 445 students, 53% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1917 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.78%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,714
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -36.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5031 Caledonia Lake Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,313 (-15%)	54mo	$264,990	$202	48
5039 Caledonia Lake Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,851 (+20%)	54mo	$281,990	$152	46
16527 County Road 528a	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,872 (+22%)	24mo	$359,000	$192	43
16422 County Road 528	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+14%)	47mo	$650,000	$370	24
7218 County Road 42	1.82mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (-15%)	13mo	$390,000	$299	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,818
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-56,241
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1917
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $196,276

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $50	+0% $-19	+5% $-88	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-108	+0% $-19	+5% $70	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $32	base $-19	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 212 DOM
9. 2025-10-31
   listed $199,000 Active 1001-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL on 1.52 ACRES! Opportunity knocks! Situated on a sprawling 1.52-acre lot, this property offers incredible potential for a buyer looking to customize their dream country retreat. With a highly competitive asking price, this is a rare chance to own a sizable piece of Texas land and home at an unbeatable value. The existing 3-bedroom, 2-bath home provides an excellent footprint to work with. Imagine the possibilities with this expansive lot—perfect for gardening, raising animals, building a large workshop, or having plenty of space for outdoor hobbies and activities. The property is mostly private and includes a handy shed for extra storage. Enjoy low utility costs with existing septic and well systems. Enjoy privacy and space afforded by the expansive, fully fenced lot (needs repair) This property is being sold AS-IS and is ready for a full renovation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to invest and create substantial value. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$788
• After-tax cash flow: $562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $76,850–$138,330 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to become move-in ready. Immediate focus should be on the roof and landscaping to enhance curb appeal and safety.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed roof structure — Structural damage
• Major Overgrown vegetation — Hinders curb appeal
• Major General disarray — Reduces value

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Roof repair and replacement — Critical for structural integrity and safety ↑
• Both Interior cleaning and updates — Improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Frontier El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Listed $199,000 HARMLS