4882 NE Lancaster Dr #127 · Hayesville, OR 97305

$25,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1984 $20/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible investment opportunity on this light fixer. 2 bed 2 bath double wide manufactured home in a 55+ community Park only. Cheapest price in town. Sold AS-IS. CASH ONLY preferred. Financing available. Space rent is $785/month.

Key facts

• Built 1984
• Listed 133 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $25,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$97,312) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.6% vs local median 3.1% in Hayesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#63 in OR, #2,298 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 211.81%
• DSCR: 10.42
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,312
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -74.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4783 38th Ave NE #17	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-4%)	5mo	$125,000	$105	71
5422 Portland Rd NE #37	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	4mo	$39,000	$30	65
5422 Portland Rd NE Unit 22	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	7mo	$122,000	$94	63
5422 Portland Rd NE #80	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$81,000	$60	61
5422 Portland Rd NE #47	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	59
4230 Hazelgreen Rd NE #52	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$32,000	$27	55
5422 Portland Rd NE #56	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$38,500	$33	54
5287 Gold Dust St #222	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+12%)	4mo	$136,850	$97	49
5422 Portland Rd #35	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	7mo	$73,000	$52	48
4293 Lemon St NE	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	47
5422 Portland Rd NE #33	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	2mo	$60,000	$56	46
4353 Lemon St NE	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+11%)	4mo	$57,500	$41	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.67×
• Total profit: $74,679
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.79×
• Total profit: $166,506
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $1,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $236

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4115 Geranium Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	13d	1	0.08mi
4828 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	832	$1,435	$1.72	13d	5	0.17mi
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,995	$2.15	13d	25	0.36mi
4624 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	963	$2,325	$2.41	13d	10	0.49mi
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,260	$2.58	13d	20	0.61mi
4823 Settlers Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,395	$1.95	43d	1	0.85mi
4007 Iberis St NE Unit 4007 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	43d	1	0.87mi
3942 Ward Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,550	$2.00	43d	3	0.89mi
4334 Ward Pl NE Unit 1 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.89mi
3875 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	707	$1,295	$1.83	23d	1	0.92mi
4375 Falcon View Way NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	842	$1,395	$1.66	43d	1	0.92mi
3813 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	13d	1	0.94mi
3807 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	23d	1	0.94mi
4370 Fisher Rd NE Unit 203 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	13d	1	0.96mi
3792 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,145	$1.32	23d	1	0.96mi
4473 47th Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	0.97mi
4209 Satter Pl NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	13d	2	0.99mi
3568 NE Cherry Glen Pl Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	13d	7	0.99mi
4097-4207 Satter Dr NE Unit 4139 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,195	$1.54	43d	1	1.01mi
4001 Satter Dr NE Unit 4067 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	43d	1	1.05mi
4097 Satter Dr NE Unit 4157 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,195	$1.54	13d	1	1.05mi
5034 Armstrong Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	43d	1	1.14mi
4116 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4116 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	23d	1	1.17mi
4114 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4114 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	1.17mi
2768 Claxter Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,599	$1.97	13d	3	1.22mi
4261 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 218 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	43d	1	1.22mi
4245 Hawthorne Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	23d	1	1.24mi
2540 Hyacinth St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,220	$1.83	13d	2	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 85G Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	43d	1	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 55A Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,479	$1.64	43d	1	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 15H Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,459	$1.62	43d	1	1.40mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	1.45mi
5188 Perry St NE Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,550	$1.87	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2025-11-26
    listed $25,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Incredible investment opportunity on this light fixer. 2 bed 2 bath double wide manufactured home in a 55+ community Park only. Cheapest price in town. Sold AS-IS. CASH ONLY preferred. Financing available. Space rent is $785/month.

16. 2025-08-07
    price $25,000
17. 2025-07-03
    price $35,000
18. 2025-06-04
    price $55,000
19. 1984-04-03
    soldstatus $27,828

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $15,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,685
• After-tax cash flow: $11,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Hayesville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #2298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayesville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-26 Listed $25,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $25,000 WVMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $55,000 WVMLS
• 1984-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $27,828 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $538 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.