3111 E 22nd Ave · Tampa, FL 33605

$399,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 5,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. New-construction home, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, under the roof patio. Thoughtfully designed and loaded with upgrades, this residence is move-in ready for its very first owner. The open-concept layout is bright and welcoming, enhanced by expansive windows that fill the home with natural light. Built with long-lasting quality and efficiency in mind, the home offers solid block construction with a stem wall foundation, foam board insulated exterior walls for reduced energy costs, Low-E windows and Hurricane Impact Front door. Inside, you’ll appreciate the seamless flow created by water-resistant vinyl pla

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Open concept layout
• 5,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SOLID BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• FOAM BOARD INSULATED EXTERIOR
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• HURRICANE IMPACT FRONT DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RS-50
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 garage space; Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; New construction; Slab and stem wall foundation; Completed condition; Built on a 50 x 110 lot (approximately 0.13 acres)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combo; Living room and dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 354 students, 90% FRL); Greco Middle Magnet School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 700 students, 77% FRL); Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,697/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $399k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $269,692 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $197,021
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $578,746
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,968

Max offer price $361,111

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-102	+0% $-214	+5% $-327	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-321	+0% $-214	+5% $-108	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-113	base $-214	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3114 E 21st Ave Unit 1328494P Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$4,781	$2.96	1d	1	0.03mi
3101 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	5d	1	0.21mi
3107 Chipco St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,799	$1.42	26d	1	0.30mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	26d	1	0.35mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	12d	1	0.35mi
3517 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	26d	1	0.38mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	1d	1	0.56mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	16d	1	0.56mi
2610 E Lake Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$2,250	$1.33	4d	1	0.57mi
2214 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,295	$1.93	7d	1	0.57mi
2203 E 23rd Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,900	$1.54	19d	1	0.57mi
3716 N 31st St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	7d	1	0.58mi
2504 E 12th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,500	$1.76	7d	1	0.62mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	5d	1	0.63mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	7d	1	0.63mi
2607 Lindell Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,395	$1.65	4d	1	0.67mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Unit 301 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$2,050	$1.89	26d	1	0.68mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,995	$1.62	26d	1	0.68mi
3411 E 9th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	1.0	1116	$1,700	$1.52	26d	1	0.69mi
2002 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1084	$2,400	$2.21	7d	1	0.70mi
2904 Banza St Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2031	$3,200	$1.58	26d	1	0.72mi
2312 E 10th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,400	$1.58	19d	1	0.74mi
3002 Arrow St Tampa, FL	5.0	2.5	1544	$1,950	$1.26	26d	1	0.81mi
2312 E 8th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,500	$1.76	13d	1	0.82mi
2708 N 19th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	18d	1	0.83mi
1807 E 20th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$2,900	$2.56	26d	1	0.84mi
3002 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,600	$1.84	26d	1	0.89mi
4303 N 30th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$3,200	$2.54	3d	1	0.95mi
3724 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,895	$1.60	26d	1	1.01mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	4d	1	1.03mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	1d	1	1.03mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,995	$1.45	23d	1	1.03mi
3212 E Emma St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	5d	1	1.03mi
3021 Sanchez St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	26d	1	1.05mi
1520 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,350	$1.41	18d	1	1.05mi
3111 E Cayuga St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1315	$2,250	$1.71	26d	1	1.05mi
3016 E Palifox St Unit NA Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	2002	$2,200	$1.10	26d	1	1.13mi
4501 N 39th St Tampa, FL	4.0	1.0	1072	$1,595	$1.49	23d	1	1.18mi
2615 E Curtis St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,850	$1.18	22d	1	1.18mi
1504 E 33rd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,900	$2.62	26d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $399,000 Active
2. 2024-04-25
   soldstatus $130,000
3. 1985-05-01
   soldstatus $5,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,312 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,275/yr (+$190/mo · 219.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,589
• − Management: −$2,589
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$9,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6662.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,037 · -52.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.