290 Twin Lakes Dr · Canton, MS 39046

$146,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1990 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a home near the Ross Barnett Reservoir with a fenced in backyard plus an area for boat, trailer or RV parking with no HOA? Look no further! This move in ready 3 bedroom home on a large lot has lots of updates and has 200 ft of space under roof that is not included in the square footage that could be used in many ways. This price point is difficult to find this close to all the amenities that the Reservoir has to offer! Easy access to the Natchez Trace Parkway.

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Large lot
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• BOAT TRAILER RV PARKING
• LARGE LOT
• 200 FT OF SPACE UNDER ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Converted garage; Concrete and gravel surfaces; RV access/parking; Direct access; On-site storage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: unknown; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Private yard; Privacy fence; RV/boat storage; Fenced, level, rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Concrete; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Aluminum window frames
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.2% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canton Public School District (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #100 of 130 in MS (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canton Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #279 of 375 statewide, top 77%, 391 students, 100% FRL); Nichols Middle School (math 13% / reading 15%, grade F, #138 of 179 statewide, top 78%, 396 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $114
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $30,601
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $146,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $146,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 478-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $146,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $2,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$533
• After-tax cash flow: $3,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2800900
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,130
• Composite: 13.44/100
• National rank: #9523
• State rank: #100 of 130 in MS

Livability — Canton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #19396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,160
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $146,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.