317 Millwood Rd · Lavon, TX 75166

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot $175/sqft · 17% below area Est $348k · 17% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21243212 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ Just as the majestic pecan tree is long-lived, the Pecan II floor plan promises to stand the test time, providing happy memories for years to come. The three-bedroom design is artful with a large living area where you can relax after work or build the ultimate sandwich in the gourmet kitchen. The bread was freshly baked in the oven this morning. There is just enough time before bed to work on your Downward Dog in the yoga room you created in one of the bedrooms. Feeling stress-free, It's time to hop in the walk-in shower before curling up in the sitting area of your stunning primary suite with your favorite book!

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,028 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,760
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -16.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Millwood Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,657 (0%)	1mo	$289,990	$175	90
1153 Del Rio Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-2%)	1mo	$307,990	$189	84
104 Millwood Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-9%)	3mo	$285,490	$190	71
816 Harrison Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,669 (+1%)	3mo	$300,000	$180	68
115 Wild Oak Gln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,857 (+12%)	5mo	$349,990	$188	56
165 Winterwood Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (+13%)	2mo	$389,900	$209	53
252 Rosewood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+11%)	3mo	$314,900	$171	53
337 Forage Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,839 (+11%)	5mo	$335,000	$182	48
1035 Chestnut Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+11%)	7mo	$318,362	$174	46
466 Hayes St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,873 (+13%)	1mo	$280,000	$149	45
403 Sierra Rdg	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+8%)	6mo	$304,990	$170	43
553 Sierra Rdg	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,831 (+10%)	8mo	$313,287	$171	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-69,153
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-88,351
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,764

Max offer price $239,309

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-250	+0% $-350	+5% $-450	+10% $-551
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-442	+0% $-350	+5% $-259	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-204	-0.5pp $-276	base $-350	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.66mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	25d	1	0.69mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	5d	1	0.70mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.71mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	44d	1	0.72mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	44d	1	0.73mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	21d	1	0.78mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	44d	1	0.88mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	3d	1	0.89mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	0.89mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.92mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	8d	1	0.93mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.94mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.94mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.96mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	8d	1	0.99mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	1.00mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	1.02mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	1.02mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	1.03mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	1.03mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	1.04mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	7d	1	1.05mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	44d	1	1.11mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 2102 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,399	$1.16	0d	1	1.13mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	1.17mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	1.19mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	44d	1	1.35mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	0d	25	1.41mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	6d	1	1.42mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.42mi
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	8d	1	1.44mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	44d	1	1.46mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	0d	104	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $289,990 Active 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   MLS# 21243212 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ Just as the majestic pecan tree is long-lived, the Pecan II floor plan promises to stand the test time, providing happy memories for years to come. The three-bedroom design is artful with a large living area where you can relax after work or build the ultimate sandwich in the gourmet kitchen. The bread was freshly baked in the oven this morning. There is just enough time before bed to work on your Downward Dog in the yoga room you created in one of the bedrooms. Feeling stress-free, It's time to hop in the walk-in shower before curling up in the sitting area of your stunning primary suite with your favorite book!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$2,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,218
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Upgrading appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $289,990 NTREIS