18 Casale Ln · Margaretville, NY 12455

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 4.36 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private home with beautiful views. This large home offers two large bedrooms on the main floor and two more bedrooms plus a half bath on the second floor. Eat in kitchen, woodstove, great room, and a level 4+ acres.

Key facts

• 4.36 acre lot
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.2% in Margaretville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#711 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roxbury Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #668 of 755 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.92%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $495,430
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Taco Ln	0.09mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,304 (-3%)	5mo	$275,000	$211	80
440 Fox Meadow Ln	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,350 (+1%)	15mo	$500,000	$370	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $115,780
• Equity at exit: $73,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.09×
• Total profit: $276,110
• Equity at exit: $122,564

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12455

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,002/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $1,392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-16
   soldstatus $125,000
2. 2025-10-14
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-13
   listed $139,000 Active
4. 2015-10-08
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 2015-10-05
   soldstatus $110,000 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Private home with beautiful views. This large home offers two large bedrooms on the main floor and two more bedrooms plus a half bath on the second floor. Eat in kitchen, woodstove, great room, and a level 4+ acres.

6. 2014-04-07
   listed $119,000 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   Private home with beautiful views. This large home offers two large bedrooms on the main floor and two more bedrooms plus a half bath on the second floor. Eat in kitchen, woodstove, great room, and a level 4+ acres.

7. 2012-08-02
   listed $159,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,002 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,002 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$3,002
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,952
• − Management: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $15,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,712
• After-tax cash flow: $12,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roxbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625110
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,744
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #10038
• State rank: #668 of 755 in NY

Livability — Margaretville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #711
• US rank: #13534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,859

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.36%
• Current HPI: 355.7672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $139,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-05 Sold (MLS) $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-04-07 Listed $119,000 UNYREIS
• 2012-08-02 Listed $159,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,002 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.