239 Colonial Cir · Utica, NY 13502

$39,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition $47/sqft · 13% above area Est $35k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-wide mobile home in hertiage acres. Great condition, new carpet and appliances 2 bedrooms, bathroom, laundry area with washer and dryer, beautiful electric fireplace, and blacktop driveway. Before making a written offer, the buyer must make an application for park approval. Pets are allowed. Certain breed restrictions. Contact Heritage acres at 585-434-3032 for more info and application, or visit their website.

Key facts

• Blacktop driveway
• New carpet
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• NEW APPLIANCES
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• PETS ALLOWED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.3% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $35,945 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.61%
• DSCR: 4.81
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,000
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: 12.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Kilkenny Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	853 (+2%)	2mo	$64,400	$75	76
635 Kilkenny Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	853 (+2%)	4mo	$65,000	$76	73
153 Rodeo Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0	800 (-5%)	7mo	$20,000	$25	71
170 Concord Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	900 (+7%)	4mo	$35,000	$39	69
135 Concord Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	813 (-3%)	23mo	$49,000	$60	66
254 Blossom Ln	0.37mi	2/1.0	910 (+8%)	13mo	$37,000	$41	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $43,875
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.31×
• Total profit: $102,999
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,500 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $39,500 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,500 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,500 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,500 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,500 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,500 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,500 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $49,500 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Single-wide mobile home in hertiage acres. Great condition, new carpet and appliances 2 bedrooms, bathroom, laundry area with washer and dryer, beautiful electric fireplace, and blacktop driveway. Before making a written offer, the buyer must make an application for park approval. Pets are allowed. Certain breed restrictions. Contact Heritage acres at 585-434-3032 for more info and application, or visit their website.

19. 2026-04-20
    price $54,500 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Single-wide mobile home in hertiage acres. Great condition, new carpet and appliances 2 bedrooms, bathroom, laundry area with washer and dryer, beautiful electric fireplace, and blacktop driveway. Before making a written offer, the buyer must make an application for park approval. Pets are allowed. Certain breed restrictions. Contact Heritage acres at 585-434-3032 for more info and application, or visit their website.

20. 2026-03-20
    listed $59,500 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Single-wide mobile home in hertiage acres. Great condition, new carpet and appliances 2 bedrooms, bathroom, laundry area with washer and dryer, beautiful electric fireplace, and blacktop driveway. Before making a written offer, the buyer must make an application for park approval. Pets are allowed. Certain breed restrictions. Contact Heritage acres at 585-434-3032 for more info and application, or visit their website.

21. 2025-12-16
    historical
22. 2025-11-05
    status Pending
23. 2025-11-03
    historical
24. 2025-10-25
    price $12,000
25. 2025-10-08
    price $16,000
26. 2025-09-26
    price $27,500
27. 2025-09-12
    listed $34,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $9,399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,256
• After-tax cash flow: $7,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide mobile home requires cosmetic repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and value. The roof and exterior siding show significant wear, and the landscaping is overgrown. Painting the exterior and repairing the roof would be the highest-ROI updates.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of wear and potential leaks
• Major exterior siding — Worn and peeling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair roof — Prevents water damage and increases value
• Both landscape — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of wear and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Worn and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair roof — Prevents water damage and increases value ↑
• Both landscape — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+43.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $49,500 CNYIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $54,500 CNYIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $59,500 CNYIS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-11-05 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $12,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $16,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $27,500 CNYIS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $34,500 CNYIS