2009 Lewis River Rd #17 · Woodland, WA 98674

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1996 $70/sqft · 21% below area Est $73k · 12% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 55+ living at North Fork Mobile Home Village on scenic Lewis River Road. This 2bed/1ba offers a functional layout and a screened in front porch. Convenient Woodland location close to all amenities, and Horseshoe Lake. Call for your private showing today!Park approval required

Key facts

• Woodland location
• Horseshoe lake
• Built 1996

Tags

• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• WOODLAND LOCATION
• HORSESHOE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 2.7% in Woodland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#152 in WA, #3,252 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Woodland School District (town): math 48% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #94 of 291 in WA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Middle School (682 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.03%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,488
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -11.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2009 Lewis River Rd #2	0.00mi	2/1.0	920 (-0%)	8mo	$90,000	$98	92
2009 Lewis River Rd #17	0.00mi	2/1.0	824 (-11%)	1mo	$57,000	$69	81
2009 Lewis River Rd #7	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	14mo	$24,500	$25	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $33,126
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $85,827
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98674

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $665/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $700	+0% $681	+5% $663	+10% $644
Rent	-10% $528	-5% $605	+0% $681	+5% $758	+10% $834
Rate	-1.0pp $714	-0.5pp $698	base $681	+0.5pp $664	+1.0pp $647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2179 Dahlia St Woodland, WA	3.0	2.0	1096	$2,195	$2.00	0d	1	0.43mi
1451 N Goerig St Unit 1459-5 Woodland, WA	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,450	$1.38	4d	1	0.81mi
1451 N Goerig St Unit 1459-4 Woodland, WA	1.0	1.0	758	$1,275	$1.68	45d	1	0.81mi
1473 N Goerig St Woodland, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,520	$1.90	0d	4	0.84mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-03-20
   price $65,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Affordable 55+ living at North Fork Mobile Home Village on scenic Lewis River Road. This 2bed/1ba offers a functional layout and a screened in front porch. Convenient Woodland location close to all amenities, and Horseshoe Lake. Call for your private showing today!Park approval required

3. 2026-02-05
   price $70,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Affordable 55+ living at North Fork Mobile Home Village on scenic Lewis River Road. This 2bed/1ba offers a functional layout and a screened in front porch. Convenient Woodland location close to all amenities, and Horseshoe Lake. Call for your private showing today!Park approval required

4. 2026-01-28
   listed $75,000 Active 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Affordable 55+ living at North Fork Mobile Home Village on scenic Lewis River Road. This 2bed/1ba offers a functional layout and a screened in front porch. Convenient Woodland location close to all amenities, and Horseshoe Lake. Call for your private showing today!Park approval required

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$665
• − Insurance: −$5,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,895
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,895
• After-tax cash flow: $6,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland School District
• NCES district ID: 5310050
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,973
• Composite: 49.77/100
• National rank: #4219
• State rank: #94 of 291 in WA

Livability — Woodland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #3252

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodland, WA
• County: Clark County · 513,189 people
• City population: 17,525
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 17,525
• Household income: $94,245
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.68%
• Current HPI: 333.4106
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $65,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $70,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $75,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $665 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.