15 Surf Dr · Forward, PA 15020

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a brand new 3-bedroom 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home located in a country-like area of Bunola, PA, and just off the banks of the Monongahela River. This home is located in a mobile home community known as Bunola Estates. Walking into this house from a covered front porch into a beautiful living room. The kitchen and dining room adjoin the living room. Down a hallway, you will come to a master bedroom with an ensuite master bath featuring double sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are off the same hall and are next to the main bathroom.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2024
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; New construction; Composition roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove; Some electric appliances
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elizabeth Forward SD (suburban): math 41% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #136 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $22,763
• Equity at exit: $44,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $66,173
• Equity at exit: $69,295

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15020

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $100,000 Active 1941-char remark
15. 2025-07-26
    historical Expired 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    This is a brand new 3-bedroom 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home located in a country-like area of Bunola, PA, and just off the banks of the Monongahela River. This home is located in a mobile home community known as Bunola Estates. Walking into this house from a covered front porch into a beautiful living room. The kitchen and dining room adjoin the living room. Down a hallway, you will come to a master bedroom with an ensuite master bath featuring double sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are off the same hall and are next to the main bathroom.

16. 2025-05-29
    listed $170,000 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    This is a brand new 3-bedroom 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home located in a country-like area of Bunola, PA, and just off the banks of the Monongahela River. This home is located in a mobile home community known as Bunola Estates. Walking into this house from a covered front porch into a beautiful living room. The kitchen and dining room adjoin the living room. Down a hallway, you will come to a master bedroom with an ensuite master bath featuring double sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are off the same hall and are next to the main bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, brand-new manufactured home in Bunola Estates offers modern finishes, an open floor plan, and beautiful river views. The home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabeth Forward SD
• NCES district ID: 4209090
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,344
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2611
• State rank: #136 of 539 in PA

Livability — Forward

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bunola, PA
• Population (ZIP): 497

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 19%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-41.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $100,000 West Penn MLS
• 2025-07-26 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $170,000 West Penn MLS