Duplex
4669 Kirby Ave · Cincinnati, OH
Flood risk 10/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $713 – $1,323
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 103°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +5.9/15.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$144,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks
Great duplex opportunity in Cincinnati! This income-producing property offers two units with a functional layout, making it ideal for investors or owner-occupants looking to offset their mortgage with rental income. Conveniently located near shopping, parks, schools, and major highways, providing easy access to downtown and surrounding neighborhoods. A fantastic opportunity to add a solid property to your portfolio!
Key facts
- Easy access
- Two units
- Functional layout
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info: Two total units; Two efficiency units listed (910 sq. ft. noted separately in source)
Exterior
- Parking: Driveway with 2 open parking spaces
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
- Home design: Duplex; One and one-half stories; Poured foundation
- Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
- Exterior features: Casement windows; Residential zoning
Interior
- Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (duplex)
- Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Gas heating
- Interior features: Full basement; Wood-burning fireplace
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $145k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $962 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $481/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
- Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.9% in Cincinnati — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#130 in OH, #1,856 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
- Cincinnati Public Schools (urban): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #581 of 656 in OH (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.7%/yr); 46 active listings in the ZIP; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,682/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 943% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.85% ✓
- Cap rate
- 14.72%
- Cash-on-cash
- 30.11%
- DSCR
- 2.34
- GRM
- 4.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $139,800
- Comps found
- 3
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4686 Hamilton Ave | 0.31mi | 4/2.0 | 2,351 (+1%) | 21mo | $140,000 | $60 | 67 |
| 1663 Bruce Ave #2 | 0.64mi | 4/2.0 | 2,515 (+8%) | 10mo | $348,750 | $139 | 49 |
| 4215 Kirby Ave | 0.72mi | 4/— | 2,242 (-4%) | 16mo | $106,000 | $47 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 28.7%
- Equity multiple
- 2.28×
- Total profit
- $52,131
- Equity at exit
- $21,605
- IRR
- 39.1%
- Equity multiple
- 5.67×
- Total profit
- $189,392
- Equity at exit
- $12,528
Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 73 Landlord-Friendly
- State Ohio
- 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 45223
- Rents YoY
- 16.7%
- Active inventory
- 46
- Price-to-rent
- 9.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,682 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$760
- Tax from tax record
- −$281 /mo · $3,366/yr
- Insurance
- −$60
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$56 /mo · $666/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$563
- Net cashflow
- $962
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,045 | -5% $1,004 | +0% $962 | +5% $921 | +10% $880 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $751 | -5% $857 | +0% $962 | +5% $1,068 | +10% $1,174 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,035 | -0.5pp $999 | base $962 | +0.5pp $925 | +1.0pp $887 |
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 2 | 1 | $2,682 |
| #1 | 2 | 1 | $1,341 |
| #2 | 2 | 1 | $1,341 |
| Total (2 units) | $2,682 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $36,225
- Closing costs
- $4,347
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 31 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $144,900 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $144,900 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $144,900 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $144,900 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $144,900 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $144,900 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $144,900 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $144,900 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-07pricedays on market $144,900 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $154,900 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $154,900 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $154,900 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $154,900 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-05-22price $154,900
-
2026-05-09price $164,900
-
2026-03-20$169,900 Active
-
2018-07-25soldstatus $357,900
-
2012-01-20historical
-
2011-07-20$49,900
-
2011-01-19historical
-
2010-07-19$49,000
-
2009-05-01soldstatus $10,000
-
2009-01-05$15,300
-
2008-04-17historical
-
2008-03-08$62,000
-
2007-10-25historical
-
2007-04-26$67,000
-
2006-09-11historical
-
2006-06-14$71,900
-
2003-01-31soldstatus $62,000
-
2002-12-09$65,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,366 · $281/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,366 · $281/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,184
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,117
- − Property taxes
- −$3,366
- − Insurance
- −$1,391
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,575
- − Management
- −$2,575
- − Depreciation
- −$4,215
- Taxable income
- $9,946
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,387
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,163/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Cincinnati Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3904375
- Math proficiency
- 25% ▼ -19.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 36% ▼ -14.00%
- Median HH income
- $35,743
- Composite
- 25.21/100
- National rank
- #7508
- State rank
- #581 of 656 in OH
Livability — Cincinnati
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #130
- US rank
- #1856
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Cincinnati, OH
- County
- Hamilton County · 701,295 people
- City population
- 505,555
- Metro
- Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
- Population (ZIP)
- 14,182
- Household income
- $49,312
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 943.0
Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 826,054 people
- By 2030
- 830,947 · +0.6%
- By 2040
- 832,319 · +0.8%
- By 2050
- 822,428 · -0.4%
- By 2075
- 788,688 · -4.5%
- By 2100
- 710,674 · -14.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 53% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, Guatemala
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton
- 2024 margin
- D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -171.27%
- Current HPI
- 239.5488
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 16.66%
- Metro
- Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- F500 in state
- 48
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 3 | $145B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $49B |
|
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| Financial Services | 3 | $24B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $93B |
|
||
| Aerospace / Defense | 2 | $47B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $33B |
|
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Price history
+135.1% since first listed18 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-22 Price Changed $154,900 Cincy MLS
- 2026-05-09 Price Changed $164,900 Cincy MLS
- 2026-03-20 Listed $169,900 Cincy MLS
- 2018-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $357,900 Public Records
- 2012-01-20 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
- 2011-07-20 Listed $49,900 Cincy MLS
- 2011-01-19 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
- 2010-07-19 Listed $49,000 Cincy MLS
- 2009-05-01 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Cincy MLS
- 2009-01-05 Listed $15,300 Cincy MLS
- 2008-04-17 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
- 2008-03-08 Listed $62,000 Cincy MLS
- 2007-10-25 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
- 2007-04-26 Listed $67,000 Cincy MLS
- 2006-09-11 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
- 2006-06-14 Listed $71,900 Cincy MLS
- 2003-01-31 Sold (MLS) $62,000 Cincy MLS
- 2002-12-09 Listed $65,900 Cincy MLS
Property tax history
+27.8%/yrLatest (2025): $3,366 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…