69 Elmhurst Dr · South Lockport, NY 14094

$69,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Central a/c
• Open living space
• Kitchen peninsula

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN PENINSULA
• CENTRAL A/C
• PRIVATE ENSUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $69,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Holly plan)
• Exterior features: Property at 69 Elmhurst Dr, Lockport, NY 14094

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Holly plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $61,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.77%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $39,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
480 Chestnut Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	924 (-1%)	16mo	$42,900	$46	77
533 Applewood Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+8%)	5mo	$35,000	$35	68
1108 Lockwood Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+8%)	0mo	$30,000	$30	66
337 Applewood Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	980 (+5%)	16mo	$32,900	$34	63
306 Dogwood Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,035 (+11%)	7mo	$43,000	$42	61
1062 Fernwood Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	964 (+3%)	14mo	$16,500	$17	60
1158 Timberwood Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,064 (+14%)	6mo	$60,000	$56	53
125 Sherwood Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+13%)	2mo	$55,500	$53	51
1327 Willowbrook Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+13%)	14mo	$48,000	$45	46
1021 Fernwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+5%)	23mo	$47,500	$48	44
6035 S Transit #300 Woodcrest Rd #300	0.63mi	2/1.5	980 (+5%)	22mo	$31,000	$32	43
1289 Norwood Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+14%)	5mo	$37,000	$35	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $17,316
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $54,302
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,999 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,999 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,999 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,999 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,999 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $69,999 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $4,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B