1406 College Pkwy · Midway, FL 32563

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1980 7,405 sqft lot Est $253k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This house is not move-in ready & it is quite possibly the roughest house in the neighborhood. It has 3 bedrooms & most are adorned w/ trash, junk, & other debris. It has a total of 1.5 bathrooms. Let's be real, this property is rough but it could be quite nice & profitable w/ some repairs, updating, & planning. Perfect house for the handyman that is willing to give it the TLC it needs. Sold as-is with occupants in place. It's like a mystery box but for real estate: buy it & see what is inside! It has great potential for the right person.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $170k implies a 426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,000
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1406 College Pkwy	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$150	97
1460 Stanford Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+4%)	8mo	$200,000	$192	76
1600 Lahaina Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+14%)	1mo	$325,000	$284	61
3482 Willow Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,025 (+2%)	7mo	$300,500	$293	55
3179 Clemson Rd	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,125 (+12%)	22mo	$285,000	$253	50
3326 Maplewood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,051 (+5%)	11mo	$215,000	$205	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,952
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $33,823
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,449/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3208 College Ct Gulf Breeze, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,756	$2.13	14d	11	0.27mi
3226 Santa Rosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,600	$1.44	23d	1	0.35mi
1614 Green Briar Pkwy #4 Gulf Breeze, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,220	$1.28	23d	1	0.48mi
3229 Maplewood Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	1.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	14d	1	0.74mi
3868 Mariners Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,995	$1.44	23d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-14
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 1980-12-01
   soldstatus $32,300
4. 1980-11-01
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,449
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $3,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2731.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $169,900 PARMLS
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,300 Public Records
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,449 · +247.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.