3038 Viceroy Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$272,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Land · 75 Days on market

Built 2026 4,600 sqft lot $109/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Allex is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Lake Deer Estates in Poinciana, Florida. With 2 exteriors to choose from, the Allex is sure to turn heads. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you’ll find 1,504 square feet of comfortable living. The living area is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Relax on the covered lanai looking out to your backyard. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless-steel appliances and a walk-in pantry which are sure to both turn heads and make meal prep easy. You’ll never be too far from the action wit

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• Open concept
• Covered lanai

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED LANAI
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Living area approximately 1,504 (builder provided); Total rooms: 7; Lot approx. 0.1 acre (about 427 m²); CDD applies
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approx. $2,481; Tax info available (tax year 2025); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly approx. $19.83; annual association fee $238; additional annual fee $1,080); Association names: Victor Estrada; First Service Residential; Association fee required; Community amenities: Dog park, Playground, Pool, Sidewalks, Street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; Fiber optics available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-05-14); Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton (model: Allex); Builder license CBC1265174; Permit BR-2026-328; Year built: new construction (projected 2026)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Insulated windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,398 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,715
• Equity at exit: $59,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-62,643
• Equity at exit: $57,516

Cash invested: $76,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,025/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$109
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,413

Max offer price $224,261

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-199	+0% $-276	+5% $-353	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-357	+0% $-276	+5% $-194	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-206	base $-276	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,248
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3630 Walking Stick Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$2,150	$1.08	24d	1	0.24mi
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$1,950	$0.89	3d	10	0.24mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	24d	1	0.32mi
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	4d	1	0.33mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	24d	1	0.34mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	20d	1	0.37mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.38mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	13d	1	0.48mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	24d	1	0.54mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	15d	1	0.66mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	24d	1	0.69mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	4d	1	0.73mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	13d	1	0.75mi
733 James Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	24d	1	0.85mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	15d	1	0.91mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.95mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	24d	1	0.98mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	24d	1	0.99mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	24d	1	0.99mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	24d	1	1.06mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	4d	1	1.07mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	4d	1	1.16mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	24d	1	1.16mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	24d	1	1.21mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	4d	1	1.23mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	11d	1	1.24mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	1.25mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	24d	1	1.26mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	15d	1	1.26mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	15d	1	1.27mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	4d	1	1.29mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	4d	1	1.30mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	4d	1	1.35mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	24d	1	1.37mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	24d	1	1.42mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	24d	1	1.42mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	24d	1	1.46mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	4d	1	1.47mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	4d	1	1.48mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	15d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $109 · $1,308/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $272,990 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $272,990 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $272,990 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $272,990 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-04-20
   price $272,990
6. 2026-03-20
   listed $270,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,025 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$3,025
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − HOA: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$8,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $272,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $270,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,025 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.