4173 Rolling Oaks Dr · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1983 3,681 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check this out!! The home has new vinyl plank and new carpet in the bedrooms and a new roof in 2025. Enjoy the nice sized living room with relaxing cool blue paint and chair rail. Additionally there is a built in for additional storage and display area for your trinkets. The kitchen offers a nice flooring, with upgraded countertops and lots of cabinets and storage. The hall bathroom has been upgraded with vinyl plank and a custom shower. The primary bathroom offers nice space and a walk in closet. All the floors have plywood subfloors with vinyl plank or carpet. The back porch on the home has been framed in and divided into two office spaces. The walls at the back of the house are freesta

Key facts

• New vinyl plank
• Built in storage
• New carpet

Tags

• NEW VINYL PLANK
• NEW CARPET
• NEW ROOF
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Directions available
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported (approx. $1,957.32)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee about $163.11); HOA includes trash and water; Community features: Clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard court; buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Metal frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 720 square feet
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Gravel road access on a private maintained road; Fishing pier (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Lake Elementary School (math 49% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 697 students, 59% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-7,889
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,237
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $197	+0% $166	+5% $134	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $112	+0% $166	+5% $219	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $194	base $166	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $1,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,340 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.