176 Maple Ave · Flanders, NY 11901

$499,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1948 0.29 ac lot $603/sqft · at area comps Est $493k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stylish and thoughtfully updated home featuring modern finishes and abundant natural light. The living room offers a comfortable space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen boasts light wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, subway tile backsplash, open shelving, and a center island, with an adjacent breakfast nook for casual dining. The bedrooms provide a calm retreat, while the renovated bathroom features striking tilework, modern fixtures, and a walk-in shower. Set on a generous lot with room to enjoy outdoor space. Ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. “This property may qualify for location-based down payment assistance or grant programs for eligible buyers. Eligibility is subject to individual borrower qualifications, lender approval, and program availability. Programs are not guaranteed.”

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $499k).
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $499k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.75%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,841
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: 1.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Priscilla Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	836 (+1%)	6mo	$490,000	$586	58
15 Short St	0.71mi	2/2.0	840 (+1%)	4mo	$500,000	$595	57
108 Reeves Bay Trl	0.61mi	2/1.0	808 (-2%)	14mo	$565,000	$699	56
115 Wood Road Trl	0.74mi	2/1.0	880 (+6%)	10mo	$365,000	$415	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $132,249
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $389,406
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,727
• Net cashflow: $3,347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,987

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,629	-5% $3,488	+0% $3,347	+5% $3,206	+10% $3,064
Rent	-10% $2,697	-5% $3,022	+0% $3,347	+5% $3,672	+10% $3,997
Rate	-1.0pp $3,598	-0.5pp $3,474	base $3,347	+0.5pp $3,218	+1.0pp $3,086

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Reeves Bay Trl Unit 1546122P Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	990	$5,161	$5.21	14d	1	0.51mi
57 Nash Ave Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	860	$15,000	$17.44	20d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $499,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-03-25
   price $499,000 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Stylish and thoughtfully updated home featuring modern finishes and abundant natural light. The living room offers a comfortable space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen boasts light wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, subway tile backsplash, open shelving, and a center island, with an adjacent breakfast nook for casual dining. The bedrooms provide a calm retreat, while the renovated bathroom features striking tilework, modern fixtures, and a walk-in shower. Set on a generous lot with room to enjoy outdoor space. Ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. “This property may qualify for location-based down payment assistance or grant programs for eligible buyers. Eligibility is subject to individual borrower qualifications, lender approval, and program availability. Programs are not guaranteed.”

7. 2026-01-28
   listed $535,000 Active 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Stylish and thoughtfully updated home featuring modern finishes and abundant natural light. The living room offers a comfortable space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen boasts light wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, subway tile backsplash, open shelving, and a center island, with an adjacent breakfast nook for casual dining. The bedrooms provide a calm retreat, while the renovated bathroom features striking tilework, modern fixtures, and a walk-in shower. Set on a generous lot with room to enjoy outdoor space. Ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. “This property may qualify for location-based down payment assistance or grant programs for eligible buyers. Eligibility is subject to individual borrower qualifications, lender approval, and program availability. Programs are not guaranteed.”

8. 2026-01-23
   historical $535,000 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   Stylish and thoughtfully updated home featuring modern finishes and abundant natural light. The living room offers a comfortable space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen boasts light wood cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, subway tile backsplash, open shelving, and a center island, with an adjacent breakfast nook for casual dining. The bedrooms provide a calm retreat, while the renovated bathroom features striking tilework, modern fixtures, and a walk-in shower. Set on a generous lot with room to enjoy outdoor space. Ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. “This property may qualify for location-based down payment assistance or grant programs for eligible buyers. Eligibility is subject to individual borrower qualifications, lender approval, and program availability. Programs are not guaranteed.”

9. 2019-12-10
   soldstatus $225,000
10. 2003-08-25
    soldstatus $149,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,900 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,167 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,266/yr (+$189/mo · 58.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,895
• − Management: −$7,895
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $34,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,167
• After-tax cash flow: $31,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flanders

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #22674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flanders, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+233.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $535,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Coming Soon $535,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,900 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.