351 Farm To Market Rd · Country Knolls, NY 12118

$299,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1957 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This lovely ranch home located in Shenendehowa School District has been cherished by the same family for many years and is ready for its next owner! Offering just over 1,300 sq ft of living space, this home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and a spacious eat-in kitchen perfect for gathering and entertaining. Hardwood floors are beneath the carpet throughout, offering even more potential and charm. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, ideal for relaxing with your morning coffee and enjoying the pastoral views of the horse farm. Step inside the side entrance to the mud room with washer and dryer. The large living room features a cozy wood-burning fireplace, while the basement offers an additi

Key facts

• Pastoral views
• Enclosed front porch
• Mud room

Tags

• SHENENDEHOWA SCHOOL DISTRICT
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• PASTORAL VIEWS
• MUD ROOM
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Total parking for six vehicles; Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: 150 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Brick and vinyl siding with brick veneer
• Construction: Block foundation; Asbestos shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved driveway; Drive-paved yard; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Oil hot water heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Wood stove in basement; Bilco doors to basement; Unfinished basement; Storm doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.4% in Country Knolls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#547 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Karigon Elementary School (math 75% / reading 79%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 482 students, 11% FRL); Gowana Middle School (math 57% / reading 76%, grade A-, #114 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 773 students, 15% FRL); Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $200,945 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $134,830
• Equity at exit: $270,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $419,530
• Equity at exit: $582,832

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12118

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,053/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $220,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-279	-5% $-364	+0% $-448	+5% $-533	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-607	-5% $-528	+0% $-448	+5% $-369	+10% $-290
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-372	base $-448	+0.5pp $-526	+1.0pp $-605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
147 Anthony Rd Halfmoon, NY	3.0	1.0	1209	$2,000	$1.65	25d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $299,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,053 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,561 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,053
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenendehowa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626670
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $82,933
• Composite: 64.59/100
• National rank: #531
• State rank: #98 of 590 in NY

Livability — Country Knolls

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #9797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,069
• Household income: $92,710
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 8% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 343.9893
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $299,999 Global MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,053 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.