11 Country Elms Est #11 · Galesburg, IL 61401

$12,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 2026

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a playground, community events, , and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $13k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $13k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.8% vs local median 6.4% in Galesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Knoxville CUSD 202 (town): math 17% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #443 of 620 in IL (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $89 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $387 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Knox County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $12,513 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 251.90%
• DSCR: 12.21
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.80×
• Total profit: $46,218
• Equity at exit: $1,923

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.38×
• Total profit: $102,495
• Equity at exit: $1,115

Cash invested: $3,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61401

• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$68
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $194/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $113

Max offer price $12,900

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,225
• Closing costs: $387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 384-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $12,900 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$723
• − Property taxes: −$194
• − Insurance: −$64
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$375
• Taxable income: $9,456
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $6,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knoxville CUSD 202
• NCES district ID: 1721390
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,192
• Composite: 16.68/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #443 of 620 in IL

Livability — Galesburg

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7601

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 32,318
• Population (ZIP): 30,684

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,224 people
• By 2030: 46,333 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 42,424 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 38,929 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 31,523 · -34.6%
• By 2100: 24,092 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.4% · R 53.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+3.3 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.48%
• Current HPI: 157.276
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B