253 Daniel Dr · Sanibel, FL 33957

$1,195,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1984 0.42 ac lot Est $939k · 27% over $176/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Seagull Estates community, just three homes in from West Gulf Drive, this beautifully updated residence offers the perfect blend of privacy and proximity to the beach. From the moment you step inside, you are greeted by soaring vaulted ceilings and an inviting, open living space filled with natural light. The updated kitchen features modern finishes and flows seamlessly into the main living area—ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the sand. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the main living level and showcases a beautifully upgraded primary bath. The second living level offers two additional bedrooms and a full bath, providing

Key facts

• Deeded beach access
• Clubhouse
• Pickleball

Tags

• DEEDED BEACH ACCESS
• COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association management and legal/accounting included; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, shuffleboard, management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story home; Entry level: 1; Faces west; East exposure on lot
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding and wood frame; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier raised foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Includes a family room
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Living/dining room; Dual sinks; Walk-in closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($82k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.09M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Sanibel School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 2,144 statewide, top 0%, 289 students, 12% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $335k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.09M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,087,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.90%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $938,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3025 Turtle Gait Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,167 (+12%)	9mo	$1,050,000	$485	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $239,383
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $766,847
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$898 /mo · $10,771/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$176
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,003
• Net cashflow: $6,794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,462

Max offer price $1,195,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,471	-5% $7,133	+0% $6,794	+5% $6,456	+10% $6,118
Rent	-10% $5,288	-5% $6,041	+0% $6,794	+5% $7,547	+10% $8,300
Rate	-1.0pp $7,396	-0.5pp $7,098	base $6,794	+0.5pp $6,485	+1.0pp $6,170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 47B Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$20,000	$16.09	25d	1	0.56mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 32E Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$18,000	$14.48	25d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $176 · $2,112/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-03-30
    price $1,195,000
13. 2026-02-26
    listed $1,240,000 Active
14. 2023-04-10
    soldstatus $1,127,000
15. 1999-03-05
    soldstatus $384,000
16. 1987-11-01
    soldstatus $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,771 · $898/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,771 · $898/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $228,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$10,771
• − Insurance: −$11,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,300
• − Management: −$18,300
• − HOA: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable income: $66,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,952
• After-tax cash flow: $65,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+397.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $1,195,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $1,240,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,127,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $384,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,771 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.