8721 Gulf Shore Ter · Ellenton, FL 34219

$426,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $562k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8721 Gulf Shore Ter, Parrish, FL 34219; Listing modified Jun 7, 2026
• Financial info: List price $425,650

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Raleigh plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approx. 2,896

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Raleigh plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $426k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $346,679 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $561,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9428 Bella Mar Trl	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (-5%)	2mo	$425,000	$154	66
8405 Golden Beach Ct	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,059 (+6%)	7mo	$644,990	$211	52
8814 Starry Night Ter	0.69mi	5/4.0	3,018 (+4%)	4mo	$535,000	$177	51
9436 Bella Mar Trl	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+14%)	1mo	$473,000	$143	51
9427 Bella Mar Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,313 (+14%)	1mo	$477,000	$144	50
9013 Sandy Shores St	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,699 (-7%)	2mo	$535,000	$198	47
8522 Salmar Loop	0.59mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,174 (+10%)	1mo	$825,076	$260	47
7438 Sea Manatee St	0.74mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	0mo	$559,990	$181	43
7470 Sea Manatee St	0.74mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	1mo	$599,990	$194	42
7441 Sea Manatee St	0.74mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,689 (-7%)	3mo	$530,000	$197	40
7490 Sea Manatee St	0.74mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	4mo	$500,000	$161	40
7479 Sea Manatee St	0.73mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,269 (+13%)	1mo	$685,000	$210	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-92,450
• Equity at exit: $63,578

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-136,612
• Equity at exit: $36,867

Cash invested: $119,392 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$533 /mo · $6,396/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,730

Max offer price $396,303

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,600
• Closing costs: $12,792
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	0.20mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.25mi
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	3d	1	0.26mi
8438 Blue Wave Ln Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	24d	1	0.31mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.39mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.01mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	1.19mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	3d	1	1.22mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	24d	1	1.25mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $426,400 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $426,400 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $426,150 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $426,150 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $425,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,650 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,650 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,650 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 366-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $425,650 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,885
• − Property taxes: −$6,396
• − Insurance: −$2,132
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,328
• − Management: −$3,328
• − Depreciation: −$12,404
• Taxable loss: −$9,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $-127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It has a good resale and rental value with minor updates needed for curb appeal and living space improvement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves the living space and attracts renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves the living space and attracts renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B