167 Jefferson Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2005 5,000 sqft lot Est $352k · 25% under $61/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home is ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of - 2 large living areas, 3 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large Kitchen. Gigantic pantry with room for a refrigerator or freezer. The neighborhood has a community swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas and Fort Worth. Garage door will be fixed before closing. 2 week leaseback needed. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator stay

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Pool
• Shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• WALKING TRAILS
• SHOPPING
• MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,967 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Jefferson Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,228 (0%)	0mo	$289,500	$130	94
106 Rushmore Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,135 (-4%)	4mo	$293,000	$137	78
103 Presidents Way	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,135 (-4%)	6mo	$300,000	$141	72
202 Julian Davis Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (-2%)	2mo	$359,900	$164	66
203 Julian Davis Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (-2%)	3mo	$321,900	$147	66
206 Julian Davis Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (-2%)	3mo	$307,900	$141	66
426 Gib Woodall Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (-2%)	6mo	$344,900	$158	57
219 Patton Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (-2%)	1mo	$359,900	$164	56
213 Patton Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (+6%)	2mo	$374,990	$158	49
114 Patrick Henry Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,977 (-11%)	3mo	$339,990	$172	45
110 John Laurens Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,989 (-11%)	6mo	$329,990	$166	41
518 Bennie Leonard St	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,985 (-11%)	4mo	$294,900	$149	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $69,974
• Equity at exit: $189,215

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $220,690
• Equity at exit: $364,592

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$634 /mo · $7,609/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $190,967

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	24d	1	0.12mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	22d	1	0.14mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.16mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	43d	1	0.18mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	43d	1	0.20mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	1d	1	0.22mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	1d	1	0.26mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	1d	1	0.46mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	19d	1	0.48mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	0.48mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	11d	1	0.50mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	43d	1	0.52mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	7d	1	0.57mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	1d	1	0.63mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.68mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	22d	1	0.73mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	12d	1	0.76mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	1d	1	0.76mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	1d	1	0.79mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.80mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	7d	1	0.84mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	2d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-07
   price $265,000
4. 2026-03-12
   listed $295,000 Active
5. 2024-01-11
   soldstatus
6. 2024-01-10
   soldstatus Closed 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   This beautiful home is ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of - 2 large living areas, 3 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large Kitchen. Gigantic pantry with room for a refrigerator or freezer. The neighborhood has a community swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas and Fort Worth. Garage door will be fixed before closing. 2 week leaseback needed. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator stay

7. 2023-12-20
   status Pending 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   This beautiful home is ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of - 2 large living areas, 3 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large Kitchen. Gigantic pantry with room for a refrigerator or freezer. The neighborhood has a community swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas and Fort Worth. Garage door will be fixed before closing. 2 week leaseback needed. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator stay

8. 2023-12-14
   historical Active Option Contract 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   This beautiful home is ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of - 2 large living areas, 3 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large Kitchen. Gigantic pantry with room for a refrigerator or freezer. The neighborhood has a community swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas and Fort Worth. Garage door will be fixed before closing. 2 week leaseback needed. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator stay

9. 2023-11-30
   price $304,999 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   This beautiful home is ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of - 2 large living areas, 3 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large Kitchen. Gigantic pantry with room for a refrigerator or freezer. The neighborhood has a community swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas and Fort Worth. Garage door will be fixed before closing. 2 week leaseback needed. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator stay

10. 2023-11-15
    listed $314,999 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This beautiful home is ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of - 2 large living areas, 3 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large Kitchen. Gigantic pantry with room for a refrigerator or freezer. The neighborhood has a community swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas and Fort Worth. Garage door will be fixed before closing. 2 week leaseback needed. Washer, Dryer and Refrigerator stay

11. 2020-08-06
    soldstatus
12. 2020-08-04
    soldstatus Sold 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Wonderful home ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of! Two large living areas, three large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large kitchen with removeable island. Giantic pantry to store all that extra toliet paper with room for a refridgerator and freezer. Beautifully updated and move-in ready. The neighborhood has a swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas or Fort Worth

13. 2020-07-15
    status Pending 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Wonderful home ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of! Two large living areas, three large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large kitchen with removeable island. Giantic pantry to store all that extra toliet paper with room for a refridgerator and freezer. Beautifully updated and move-in ready. The neighborhood has a swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas or Fort Worth

14. 2020-07-04
    historical Active Option Contract 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Wonderful home ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of! Two large living areas, three large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large kitchen with removeable island. Giantic pantry to store all that extra toliet paper with room for a refridgerator and freezer. Beautifully updated and move-in ready. The neighborhood has a swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas or Fort Worth

15. 2020-06-30
    price $234,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Wonderful home ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of! Two large living areas, three large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large kitchen with removeable island. Giantic pantry to store all that extra toliet paper with room for a refridgerator and freezer. Beautifully updated and move-in ready. The neighborhood has a swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas or Fort Worth

16. 2020-05-30
    price $239,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Wonderful home ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of! Two large living areas, three large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large kitchen with removeable island. Giantic pantry to store all that extra toliet paper with room for a refridgerator and freezer. Beautifully updated and move-in ready. The neighborhood has a swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas or Fort Worth

17. 2020-05-15
    listed $244,900 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Wonderful home ready for new owners. This home has everything you have been dreaming of! Two large living areas, three large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Large kitchen with removeable island. Giantic pantry to store all that extra toliet paper with room for a refridgerator and freezer. Beautifully updated and move-in ready. The neighborhood has a swimming pool, playground and jogging trails. Fast commute to Dallas or Fort Worth

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,609 · $634/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,609 · $634/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$7,609
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$9,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-12-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-12-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $304,999 NTREIS
• 2023-11-15 Listed $314,999 NTREIS
• 2020-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-07-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-07-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-06-30 Price Changed $234,900 NTREIS
• 2020-05-30 Price Changed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2020-05-15 Listed $244,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,609 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.