446 Stillwater Dr · Pocono Pines, PA 18346

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1952 0.45 ac lot Est $217k · 26% under $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks in the highly desirable Stillwater Lake Estates community! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher is the perfect handyman or investor special, offering tremendous upside for buyers looking to build instant equity. Priced accordingly and ready for your vision, the home features a functional single-level layout with a kitchen, dining room, spacious living room, three bedrooms, and one full bathroom. Situated on a beautiful half-acre lot, there's plenty of room to expand, enhance the outdoor space, or simply enjoy the privacy and peaceful surroundings. Residents of Stillwater Lake Estates enjoy an exceptional amenity package, including a private lake and beach, tennis courts, basket

Key facts

• Beach
• Half-acre lot
• Private lake

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE
• BEACH
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• GATED SECURITY
• HALF-ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported as 1,575; No below-grade area reported
• Financial info: Ownership: Fee simple
• HOA & community: HOA fee $1,145 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached structure; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab and crawl space foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 100 x 200; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Electric hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 4.0% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $160k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.27%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,350
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
431 Stillwater Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+3%)	19mo	$225,000	$138	70
330 Stillwater Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-5%)	17mo	$375,000	$250	59
3133 Fern Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-1%)	19mo	$191,051	$122	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $98,293
• Equity at exit: $59,098

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $238,533
• Equity at exit: $82,150

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18346

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $1,428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,518	-5% $1,473	+0% $1,428	+5% $1,383	+10% $1,337
Rent	-10% $1,164	-5% $1,296	+0% $1,428	+5% $1,560	+10% $1,692
Rate	-1.0pp $1,509	-0.5pp $1,469	base $1,428	+0.5pp $1,387	+1.0pp $1,344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2195 N Estates Dr Pocono Summit, PA	4.0	2.0	1864	$3,100	$1.66	44d	1	0.67mi
1159 Thunder Dr Pocono Summit, PA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,400	$1.89	44d	1	0.96mi
2236 Hillcrest Dr Pocono Pines, PA	3.0	2.5	2068	$3,800	$1.84	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,516 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,204
• − Management: −$3,204
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $15,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,742
• After-tax cash flow: $13,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Pines

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #4925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 595
• Population (ZIP): 2,316

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Romanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Current HPI: 189.8011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+198.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,506 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.