7 Old Route 52 Unit 13 Old Route 52 · Jeffersonville, NY 12748

$225,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1920 Poor condition 1.93 ac lot $129/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedroom Cape. Fantastic Location in Jeffersonville, right on the creek! Fish in your back yard! It doesn't get any better than this. This Sullivan Co. property consists of 2 lots (1.93 Ac & . 34 Ac. ) Total 2.27 Acs. Bordering 500 ft of the East Branch of Callicoon Creek -one of the best trout streams In NYS. Old Rte 52 is Your Driveway & is maintained by the Town! Located at the corner of Rt 52 & Rt 7. Just ½ mile from center of town. Bones of the house are Good. TLC renovations needed. You can make your dreams come true here.

Key facts

• 2 lots
• 1.93 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• FISH IN YOUR BACK YARD
• 2 LOTS
• CORNER OF RT 52 AND RT 7
• ½ MILE FROM CENTER OF TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-808/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.2% in Jeffersonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#909 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,328 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $544,040
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -58.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
367 Hubert Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,977 (+14%)	16mo	$735,000	$372	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $117,498
• Equity at exit: $201,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $349,292
• Equity at exit: $434,336

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12748

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $215,251

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $10	+0% $-67	+5% $-145	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-145	+0% $-67	+5% $10	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $-10	base $-67	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $225,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    4 Bedroom Cape. Fantastic Location in Jeffersonville, right on the creek! Fish in your back yard! It doesn't get any better than this. This Sullivan Co. property consists of 2 lots (1.93 Ac & . 34 Ac. ) Total 2.27 Acs. Bordering 500 ft of the East Branch of Callicoon Creek -one of the best trout streams In NYS. Old Rte 52 is Your Driveway & is maintained by the Town! Located at the corner of Rt 52 & Rt 7. Just ½ mile from center of town. Bones of the house are Good. TLC renovations needed. You can make your dreams come true here.

17. 2024-08-30
    listed $199,000 Active
18. 2024-05-06
    price $199,999
19. 2024-03-29
    status Back On Market
20. 2024-03-19
    status Pending (Fully Executed Contract)
21. 2024-02-28
    status Pending (Continue To Show)
22. 2024-02-12
    price $225,000
23. 2023-11-15
    price $249,000
24. 2023-06-19
    listed $349,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements, including major work on the roof and exterior, as well as landscaping and painting. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent satellite image shows visible damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — The independent satellite image shows visible damage and potential leaks.
• Major landscaping — The independent satellite image shows overgrown vegetation and no visible landscaping or curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Aesthetic improvements can enhance both resale and rental value.
• Both roof and exterior repairs — Structural repairs are necessary for safety and can significantly increase the property's value.
• Both painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The independent satellite image shows visible damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The independent satellite image shows visible damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The independent satellite image shows overgrown vegetation and no visible landscaping or curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Aesthetic improvements can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof and exterior repairs — Structural repairs are necessary for safety and can significantly increase the property's value. ↑
• Both painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jeffersonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #909
• US rank: #17767

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,616

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.95%
• Current HPI: 363.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-35.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $225,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $199,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed $199,999 HVCRMLS
• 2024-03-29 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2024-03-19 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2024-02-28 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $225,000 HVCRMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $249,000 HVCRMLS
• 2023-06-19 Listed $349,000 HVCRMLS